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The 4 Most Profitable Under Teams In April

Posted by Dale "Skip" Lalonde on 5/2/2013 7:30:43 PM

When people in the online sports betting legal realm contemplate how the flow of a baseball season can unveil – and lead to – profitable days for sports bettors, it’s worth cracking open the numbers and considering how the various teams in any sport fare from week to week and month to month. Let’s take a look at Major League Baseball’s 30 teams from the just-concluded month of April. As of the afternoon of May 1, a picture is emerging about the tendencies and results of big-league ball clubs… not just on an overall level, but with respect to over-under propositions.

Assessing whether teams will hit the over or the under might seem to have all the randomness of card draws in poker games. Perhaps on a single afternoon – when anything can happen in baseball – this all feels quite removed from any information-driven exercise. However, if bettors are interested in the long haul and want to make profits over the course of months, not days, they need to stick with the data. After all, that’s one of the hallmarks of betting. If you try to parachute in and grab a big payday on one bet in one situation, you’re probably going about the process of betting in a greedy, wayward and shortsighted fashion. True betting players – who take their analysis seriously – know that the secret to winning at sports betting is not to be right 100 percent of the time, but to be right more often than being wrong, and to demonstrate consistency over long periods of time while making accordingly sound investments of money on each bet. Even American football betting gurus who don't ordinarily follow Major League Baseball can see the wisdom of this general approach.

Enough of the background explanations, then. Which teams were the most profitable “under teams” (those who most consistently played games that hit the “under” part of an over-under) from the month of April in Major League Baseball? The numbers at the website www.teamrankings.com show that the Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs, and Texas Rangers are the three most prominent “under” teams in baseball. Arizona has played 17 under games compared to just nine overs, with one push. Chicago has played 17 unders and nine overs with no pushes. Texas has played 15 unders and nine overs with two pushes. Arizona’s and Texas’ games have, on average, finished 0.6 runs below the over-under. The Cubs’ games have finished 0.2 runs below the over-under.

The fourth most profitable under team could be a point of debate, depending on which point of emphasis you use. The Chicago White Sox have played a higher percentage of under games than the Miami Marlins. The White Sox played 15 unders and eight overs with two pushes in April, for a 65.2-percent under rate. Miami played 16 unders and 10 overs with two pushes in April, a 61.5-percent under rate. However, the White Sox’ games, on average finished right at the over-under in terms of total runs scored. Miami’s games, on average, finished 0.2 runs below the established over-under mark. Just to offer a little extra perspective on this issue, only two other teams other than the ones previously mentioned – Minnesota and Atlanta – have seen their cumulative game scores match or fall below the established over-under mark (their differentials in April were both zero). All other teams’ cumulative game scores finished slightly above the over-under mark in terms of runs scored.

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