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MLB Playoff Picks - Division Series start tonight

Posted by Dale "Skip" Lalonde on 10/7/2009 12:00:25 PM
betting on baseballTime to make MLB Playoff Picks, as three of the four Division Series start tonight. Questions abound; can Cliff Lee shake his late-season struggles? What do the Twins have left in the tank after their 12-inning victory against Detroit last night? Can the Dodges solve Chris Carpenter? To the sportsbook we go.




MLB playoff picks: Phillies, Yankees, Cardinals will start strong

  • Cliff Lee’s struggles aren’t as bad as they look; he’ll prevail for Philly
  • Twins are throwing rookie Brian Duensing to the wolves in the Bronx
  • Chris Carpenter is unstoppable



Today, 2:37 p.m. ET
Rockies vs Phillies odds: Ubaldo Jimenez (15-12, 3.47) vs Cliff Lee (14-13, 3.22)

It’s hard to bet against the Phillies at home but the Rockies certainly have the momentum entering Game 1. Ubaldo Jimenez, baseball’s hardest-throwing starter, carried Colorado down the stretch, going 9-3 with a 3.08 ERA after the All-Star break. His 8.10 career ERA against the Phillies Is deceiving, as he didn’t face them this season and he’s clearly an evolved pitcher. Jimenez is also a proven playoff performer; he had a 2.25 ERA during the Rockies’ 2007 World Series run.

Cliff Lee was lights out upon arriving in Philly at the trade deadline, winning his first five starts, but the wheels fell off after that, as he posted a 5.59 ERA in September. However, Lee’s MLB betting struggles are deceiving. During his poor September, he walked only three batters in 29 innings, so he can clearly still throw strikes. Secondly, most of his struggles game on the road. At Citizens Bank Park, he posted a 2.52 ERA with 40 strikeouts in 35.2 innings. He’ll rise to the occasion against the Rockies, a team he dominated this season.

Rockies vs Phillies Betting Edge: Phillies


Tonight, 6:07 p.m. ET
Twins vs Yankees odds: Brian Duensing (5-2, 3.64) vs C.C. Sabathia (19-8, 3.37)

Less than 24 hours after they used eight pitchers to beat Detroit, the Twins go from the frying pan to the fire at Yankee Stadium. Rookie Brian Duensing was a pleasant surprise for Minnesota this season but nothing can prepare him for the Yankee sluggers or rabid New York fans. C.C. Sabathia is 7-2 at New Yankee Stadium and 13-8 against the Twins in his career. The Twins are 0-7 against the Yankees this season and will be 0-8 in a matter of hours.

Twins vs Yankees Betting Edge: Yankees


Tonight, 9:37 p.m. ET
Cardinals vs Dodgers odds: Chris Carpenter (17-4, 2.24) vs Randy Wolf (11-7, 3.23)

Online sports betting fans will be tempted to bet on Joe Torre and the Dodgers tonight but doing so would be a mistake. Chris Carpenter, who pitched as well as anyone in the majors this season, has a boatload of numbers in his favor. Not only is he 5-0 against the Dodgers all-time, he was 9-2 with a 2.05 ERA on the road and 11-2 with a 2.41 ERA in night games this season.

Randy Wolf is more than serviceable; he was remarkably consistent this season, allowing three or fewer runs in 17 of his last 18 starts. However he’s a better road pitcher than home pitcher and is homer-prone, even at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. There’s just no way we can bet against Carpenter tonight.

Cardinals vs Dodgers Betting Edge: Cardinals


For in depth sports betting analysis and daily MLB playoff picks, bookmark the Betting Edge at betonline.com.

Dale Lalonde is betonline.com's MLB expert.

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