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Padres Phillies Betting – Phillies Should Come Out On Top In Low-Scoring Series

Posted by Dale “Skip” Lalonde on 7/22/2011 6:58:17 PM
padres phillies betting

When checking the sports betting odds for this weekend’s matchup between San Diego and Philadelphia, be sure to watch for the total as six of the last 10 meetings between these two at Citizens Bank Park have gone under the posted total, with the teams splitting the games as well. This shouldn’t be a surprise as the two rank in the top five of the National League when it comes to allowing runs, but take the Phillies to get enough runs to take three of four.

What: MLB Betting
When: Friday, July 22nd – Sunday, July 24th
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies

Friday, 7:05 PM ET – Cory Luebke (3-3, 2.57) vs. Cole Hamels (11-5, 2.71)

In his first full year in the majors, Luebke has been solid since moving into the rotation, and in his first four starts of the season, he has allowed four earned runs in 24 innings. Both of his career appearances against the Phillies have come in relief, and he hasn’t allowed a run in three innings over two outings (both of which came this season at home). He’ll be taking on Hamels, who was roughed up for seven runs in 4.1 innings in New York against the Mets, but he has great numbers against the Padres. The 27-year-old southpaw tossed eight scoreless innings in San Diego back in April, and now he is 5-2 in 10 starts against the Padres with a 2.42 ERA. He is also 6-3 in 11 starts at home this season with a 2.41 ERA.

The Padres have to come to Florida after playing on Thursday afternoon, while the Phillies were off on Thursday and only had to travel from Chicago to get back home. When Hamels has a poor start, he usually comes back stronger than before, while it’s tough to back a rookie pitcher who is making the move from the bullpen to the rotation.

Betting Edge: Philadelphia Phillies

Saturday, 4:10 PM ET – Mat Latos (5-10, 4.02) vs. Kyle Kendrick (5-4, 3.34)

Latos is doing his best to keep the Padres in games, but he ranks 55th out of 59 National League pitchers in terms of run support. In his last three starts, Latos has given up seven runs, but the Padres have scored four. He lasted just 4.1 innings against the Phillies earlier this year, and a loss took his career mark to 0-2 in three starts against Philadelphia with a 3.86 ERA. The 23-year-old also has lost his lone start in Philadelphia, and he’s struggled on the road with a 4.50 ERA in eight starts, posting a 2-5 record. Kendrick has been bouncing around between the bullpen and the rotation, but he has allowed just two runs in his last two starts. Still, his splits against the Padres are only average: 2-1 in three games (two starts) with a 5.91 ERA, and the 26-year-old is 2-3 in 11 games (four starts) with a 2.89 ERA at home.

Kendrick likely needs a few runs, but Latos is due to get some support of his own. Get ready for a close MLB betting matchup: six of Latos’ last 10 starts have ended in a one-run game.

Betting Edge: San Diego Padres

Sunday, 1:35 PM ET – Tim Stauffer (6-6, 2.83) vs. Roy Halladay (11-4, 2.57)

Stauffer has been on a roll, allowing two runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts, but like the majority of pitchers this series, he suffers from lack of support, ranking 48th on that 59-pitcher list. He hasn’t fared well against the Phillies, going 0-1 in three starts with an ERA of 11.15, and it’s even worse in Philadelphia as Stauffer is 0-1 in two starts at Citizens Bank Park with a 16.39 ERA.  It seems that only the heat can beat Halladay as he lasted just four innings in his last start in Chicago due to heat exhaustion, but don’t worry, the two-time Cy Young winner (and All-Star starter for the National League) will be back and ready to go. He has won both of his starts against the Padres while posting a 1.72 ERA, and Halladay is 6-1 in 11 starts in Philadelphia with a 2.45 ERA.

There are a handful of pitchers that you put your MLB betting faith behind, and Halladay is right at the top of the list. Even though he doesn’t get much more run support than Stauffer, Halladay will be eager to put his last start behind him.

Betting Edge: Philadelphia Phillies

Monday, 1:05 PM ET – Aaron Harang (8-2, 3.29) vs. Cliff Lee (9-6, 2.83)

Harang has been one of the surprises of the season, and he has given up three runs in three starts since coming off the disabled list. In fact, he hasn’t lost since May 2nd, although he has taken a few no-decisions along the way. The big 33-year-old is 2-2 in 11 games (10 starts) against the Phillies with a 5.22 ERA, and he is 1-1 in five games (four starts) in Philadelphia with a 5.00 ERA. Lee has allowed three runs in two starts since getting lit up for six runs in Toronto, and now he is back home where he has been lights out: 7-1 in 11 starts with a 1.61 ERA at Citizens Bank Park. The 32-year-old southpaw is 1-1 in four starts against the Padres with a 4.05 ERA.

This should be the closest game of the series as Harang is in the midst of a renaissance, and we all know what Lee can do. The Phillies are the play on Sunday in your online betting book.

Betting Edge: Philadelphia Phillies

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