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2011 NBA Finals Betting – Mavs Win Final Home Game Of The Season, Head Back To Miami

Posted by Craig Parsons on 2/6/2014 9:47:56 PM

Sports betting players have been enthralled by the NBA Finals as Dallas and Miami aren’t giving each other an inch, and Game 5 goes Thursday night in “Big D”. This Game 5 will be a pivotal matchup as this series could be down to a best-of-three by the time they meet on Thursday night, and you should bet on Dallas to gain the upper hand in their home finale.

  • What: NBA Betting
  • When: Thursday, June 9th, 9:00 PM ET
  • Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
  • Pick: Dallas Mavericks

Why Bet On Miami Heat

The Heat have a simple formula: let the trio of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh combine for 65-75 points, get one major contribution from another player (most likely Mike Bibby or Mario Chalmers), and play lockdown defense. The Heat are going to have the advantage in any game that ends up with less than 180 points because of their edge on defense, specifically with the energy provided by LeBron James. Much of the discussion leading up to this series was whether or not James would be guarding Dallas forward Dirk Nowitzki, but James has been on Jason Terry, especially in late-game situations, and that has left Nowitzki to shoulder the load on his own. The Heat can at least hand off offensive responsibilities to James, Wade or even Bosh, although Wade has taken over in this series as the closer. Most people have been calling out James for shrinking offensively, but his intensity on the defensive end have been one of the best qualities about Miami’s play.

Miami will struggle if they can’t get a player to reach double figures outside of their Big Three, or at least their bench has to put up a fight against their Dallas counterparts as the Mavericks figured to have a major advantage in that aspect. It would be nice to have James Jones back in the lineup, but he has a toe injury. The Heat have to keep the production of their role players up in order to stay in this game.

Why Bet On Dallas Mavericks

Dallas have to figure out how to slow down Wade as he is the one player that the Mavericks don’t have an answer for. Shawn Marion has been making James work for his points, and Bosh is, well, inconsistent at best, so the Mavericks can stick either Nowitzki or Tyson Chandler on him. The problem is, Wade has been running wild on the Mavericks so far in this series as Terry, Jason Kidd and J.J. Barea are all having problems staying with him. They can’t take Marion off James and put him on Wade, because then James would go off, so it’s a “pick your poison” scenario when it comes to Wade. At least they have one of the best help defenders in the league in Chandler, and even Nowitzki’s help defense has been vastly improved this year. But Nowitzki’s major concern should be offensively, and he is getting his shots against the Heat. In Game 3, he just missed some open looks, and if you give him those looks, he’s going to knock them down most of the time.

But Dallas’ NBA betting odds are dependent on Terry’s ability to be the Robin to Nowitzki’s Batman, and if he is still getting shut down by James, the Mavericks are going to be in a world of trouble. Marion stepped up in Game 2, but the Mavericks need Terry to step up or this series may not make it back to Miami for Games 6 and 7.

How It Will Play Out

The Mavericks should be slight NBA betting favorites in this game, depending on how Game 4 works out on Tuesday night in Dallas, and this will be the game in which Terry breaks out. The Mavericks have to run him off some screens, although that’s easier said than done when James can go either through or around most screens, but that’s the only way in which they’re going to find some daylight for him, because Terry having to shoot over James’ 6’8” frame isn’t going to work. But the Dallas defense will contain the Miami role players and make the Miami trio of stars try to carry the load, and that will lead to a win for Dallas in your online betting picks.

Heat Mavericks Betting – Dallas Mavericks

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