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NBA Finals Online Betting – Dallas Now Squarely On The Ropes

Posted by Craig Parsons on 2/6/2014 9:47:24 PM

The Dallas Mavericks had a huge opportunity to take control of the 2011 NBA Finals. After falling short in Game 3 on Sunday evening, the Mavs find themselves in must-win territory.

NBA Betting: NBA Finals, Game 4:

Miami Heat @ Dallas Mavericks – Tuesday, 9 PM ET

If you want to make an informed sports bet in Game 4 of the NBA Finals, you have to understand that this has been a wacky and unpredictable series. Yes, it’s true that the gambling odds and betting statistics now favor the Heat to win the series, but do those kinds of stats matter for Game 4? It’s a tough call. Even MLB baseball betting gurus would acknowledge the tricky elements of this particular prediction.

Let’s present the main betting statistic that everyone’s talking about right now: It was mentioned before Game 3 that in the era of the 2-3-2 travel format for the NBA Finals, each of the previous 11 series that were tied at one game apiece found their pivot point in Game 3. It’s true: Each of the previous 11 Finals that were tied after two games were won by the team that claimed Game 3. That’s a stat with considerable real-world relevance and staying power. Yes, the Miami Heat very likely won the Finals with their gritty 88-86 gut-check triumph on Sunday.

However, does this mean the Dallas Mavericks are toast in Game 4 tomorrow? Let’s consider the fact that last year, the Los Angeles Lakers won Game 3 of a 1-1 NBA Finals series in Boston. The Lake Show took a 2-1 lead in the series, but Boston promptly bounced back in Game 4, taking control down the stretch to even the series at two games apiece. That Laker-Celtic series felt evenly matched from the start, and it seems that this Miami-Dallas matchup is also being fought on level terms. No team seems capable of landing roundhouse punches that permanently keep the opponent on the canvas. Yes, Miami can look very intimidating and imposing at times, but the Heat – who blew a 15-point lead over the final seven minutes of Game 2 and then frittered away a 55-42 third-quarter lead on Sunday night – have not been good at finishing games with discipline. Miami’s late-game shot selection has been atrocious, and the Heat have also given up a number of cheap points on silly loose-ball fouls, not to mention lazy transition defense that has allowed Dallas to hang around for 48 full minutes. This series is featuring a lot of brain-dead plays, such as Mario Chalmers of Miami allowing a double-team to come to him along the sideline, thereby leading to a foul and two foul shots for Dallas superstar Dirk Nowitzki. Dallas, for its part, is committing gobs of bad turnovers, including a head-scratcher by Dirk himself in the final minute of Game 3. Miami’s LeBron James is disappearing from his team’s offense, while Dallas guard J.J. Barea is taking entirely too many shots in the face of Miami’s long and active defense. Astute sports betting analysts know that this Finals series is unsettled and anything but over. For this reason, pick the Mavericks in Game 4 – Dallas should play with far more urgency, and having home-court advantage should immensely help the Mavs’ cause.

Heat Mavericks Betting Pick: Mavericks

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