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March Madness Bracket Betting - Predicting A Perfect Bracket

Posted by Washington Tucker on 2/10/2014 4:35:56 AM

March Madness betting is always tricky and something that has to be given close attention if it’s to be done right, but the thing about the NCAA Tournament that is confounding for so many bettors is that it is a one-and-done knockout tournament, not a collection of best-of-seven-game series as is the case in the NBA and NHL postseasons. Teams that are generally inferior can be better on a given day, and that’s all one needs to have a gleaming bracket turn into a busted bracket. Few savvy bettors could have logically anticipated that Butler would make a second straight run to the national championship game last year… or that Virginia Commonwealth – a controversial selection to the tournament itself – would hammer (not just beat, but demolish) a solid Georgetown team, a really good Purdue team, and an excellent Kansas team to make the Final Four.

The NCAA Tournament is regularly full of surprises. In some years (think of 2007 or 2008), the top seeds march to the Final Four, but even in those tournaments, the first and second rounds offer several upsets. What is the secret to picking the perfect bracket? It’s not an easy question to answer.

When you do your homework and assess your sports bet on this year’s NCAA Tournament, there’s only so much you can do, because the formula for picking a perfect NCAA Tournament bracket will always be the same on a general level: You need some luck, you need some boldness, and you need to be able to strike a balance between upset picks and expected picks, between underdogs and favorites.

In this year’s tournament, the third through sixth seeds will be the source of much speculation and debate. The third and fourth seeds will be weaker than in years past, while the fifth and sixth seeds will have a chance to knock off those third and fourth seeds in the round of 32, thereby shaking up the brackets heading into the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. The example of a likely No. 3 or No. 4 seed that will be overrated is Georgetown. The Hoyas have been a hard-working and generally overachieving team this season, but they do not possess dynamic scorers who can take over a game in crunch time. A strong defensive team can limit Georgetown’s production and create a 50-50 game the Hoyas will be hard pressed to win in the final minutes.

The college basketball betting experts who are dissecting this NCAA Tournament are also busy looking for a sixth seed that can do a lot of damage. The brackets obviously haven’t been announced yet, but a possibility in this regard is Vanderbilt. Yes, the Commodores have played very poorly in their past few visits to the NCAA Tournament, but consider the possibility that Vandy escapes the round of 64. If Vanderbilt does overcome that mental obstacle, it has the talent to make a deep run in March thanks to NBA-level talents such as shooting guard John Jenkins and wing forward Jeffery Taylor. Vanderbilt is a feast-or-famine team, but that means it could feast if it doesn’t starve on day one.

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