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Oregon Is Surging, But So Is Louisville As The Sweet 16 Arrives

Posted by Washington Tucker on 3/25/2013 7:29:42 PM

The Oregon Ducks and Louisville Cardinals both scored two blowouts in their opening NCAA tournament games. Can Oregon possibly pull off a massive upset in Indianapolis?

Oregon Ducks vs. Louisville Cardinals – Friday, March 29  
Betting line: Louisville -10

Why Oregon Will Win

Legal online sports betting analysts know that Oregon was obviously the most incorrectly seeded and underseeded team in the entire NCAA tournament field of 68 this season. The Ducks finished one game back of UCLA for the Pac-12 regular season championship, and they then defeated UCLA on March 16 in the championship game of the Pac-12 Conference Tournament in Las Vegas. Oregon pulled off that Pac-12 tourney title with point guard Dominic Artis, a speedy freshman who missed the month of February with an injury.

Artis, now back in the lineup and fully healthy with complete mobility and range, is presiding over an Oregon team that has its legs and its confidence back. The Ducks stormed past both Oklahoma State and Saint Louis, a fifth seed and a fourth seed, to roll into the Sweet 16 without much of any problems at all. Oregon is a No. 12 seed, but it really should have been given a No. 6 or No. 7 seed in this tournament. Louisville will not be playing Cinderella, but a dangerous floater in the Midwest Regional bracket.

Louisville loves to apply full-court defensive pressure, but Artis is just the kind of ballhandling point guard who can break that pressure and, in the process, prevent Louisville from doing the kinds of things it wants to do.

Why Louisville Will Win

When NCAA football betting gurus – who are looking for something to handicap over the next few months before the 2013 pigskin season begins – catch a look at this basketball battle, they will realize that Oregon will be stripped of advantages it enjoyed over the past several days in the round of 64 and the round of 32. One thing to realize about Oregon heading into Friday is that while it was given a very low seed, it was placed close to home in San Jose, Calif., for the opening rounds of the tournament.

Oregon played two semi-home games in the opening rounds, and that will not be the case in Indianapolis, which is very close to Louisville’s own campus. The other thing to keep in mind here is that Oregon shot the ball very well in San Jose’s HP Pavilion, a conventional arena with a normal basketball shooting environment. This game will be played in a domed stadium in front of at least 40,000 people if not many more. This is not a building in which long-distance shooters generally fare well, primarily because of depth perception. Louisville, with more power and strength near the rim, especially in the person of Gorgui Dieng, should be able to get more layups and dunks. Moreover, Oregon - even if it does break Louisville’s press - will have to deal with Dieng in halfcourt sets. It’s hard to see how Oregon will score enough to win this contest, even if the Ducks establish the kind of pace they prefer.

Who Will Win

It’s likely that this game will be close for 30 minutes and then get away from Oregon late. Louisville plays for the long game, aiming to wear down opponents with its energy and pressure. Oregon is going to find it hard to stand in the ring for all 40 minutes in Indianapolis.

College Basketball Betting Pick: Louisville

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