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Alamo Bowl Betting Tips – Coaching Changes Linger As Alamo Bowl Nears

Posted by Blake Frazier on 12/16/2012 11:09:50 PM

The Texas Longhorns will enter the Alamo Bowl without the man who was their offensive coordinator this past season. That could be a complication for the Horns against Oregon State.

2012 Alamo Bowl –
Oregon State Beavers vs. Texas Longhorns – Saturday, December 29    
Betting line: Oregon State -2

Why Oregon State Will Win

Legal online sports betting analysts know that when they size up a bowl game, coaching changes loom large. Texas offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin decided to take the head coaching job at Arkansas State earlier this week, taking him away from the Longhorns for this contest. Harsin's move means that Texas will have to find a new offensive coordinator for the second time in the past three seasons. The turnover at this position cannot be seen as particularly encouraging for head coach Mack Brown. It's possible that Oregon State head coach Mike Riley might be interviewing for the Wisconsin head coaching job, but those reports are rumors right now. If Riley does stay with Oregon State, the Beavers probably have a better than even chance of winning.

Why Texas Will Win

When NCAA football betting gurus look at the other side of the coin, they will say that Texas has the offense needed to win this game, even though the Longhorns are not where they generally expected or hoped to be when the season began.  This is not your normal Texas team.  Heck, this isn’t close to the Texas team that Texas thought it had before the season started.  Last year, the Longhorns' offense held them back, while the defense was extraordinary. 

This year, Mack Brown and company were counting on the defense to remain one of the nation’s elite, and they were hoping the offense would turn the corner.  Well, the offense did get markedly better.  The Longhorns boasted a very balanced offensive team in 2012.  Ranking 44th in passing offense nationally (260.6 yards per game) and 43rd in rushing offense nationally (183 yards per game).  It didn’t stop there.  Last year, the Longhorns settled for field goals instead of scoring touchdowns, and it cost them some games. 

The yardage numbers aren’t earth shattering, but this year’s Texas offense ranked 20th nationally in scoring (37.2 points per game).  Part of the reason for that was the emergence of Joe Bergeron as a bruising and ultra effective red zone tailback.  Bergeron rushed for just 562 yards but scored an amazing 16 rushing touchdowns.  He combined with workhorse back Jonathan Gray (654 yards and 3 touchdowns) to form one of the Big 12’s best ground game duos.  The defense hasn’t been what was expected, but it does boast two of the best players at their positions in the game.  Safety Kenny Vaccaro (77 tackles, 2 forced fumbles) and defensive end Alex Okafor (37 tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss, 8 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles) are the bright spots.  Vaccaro patrols the secondary and Okafor commands a double team on every single snap.

Who Will Win

It’s likely that Texas will be distracted for this game, and that its offense, without Harsin calling plays, will lack rhythm and flow. The Longhorns got a bad break when Harsin bolted for Arkansas State. Take Oregon State here.

College Football Betting Pick: Oregon State



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