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Florida State vs Florida Betting Odds - Ground game, defense fuels Gators to emotional win over Seminoles

Posted by Blake Frazier on 11/24/2009 10:35:53 AM
bet on footballFlorida has had some online betting trouble this year, as they’ve failed to cover in a number of games with big spreads. The Gators’ Senior Day will feature their annual matchup with rival Florida State on Saturday, and the emotion of the day, along with a strong rushing attack and defense, will rip through Florida State for the Gators' sixth straight win in this rivalry.

Florida State vs Florida Odds: Florida -24.5
WHAT: NCAA football betting
WHEN: Saturday, November 28, 3:30 PM ET
WHERE: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
KEY STAT: Florida is 4-1 ATS in their last five against Florida State
PICK: Florida -24.5

Florida State vs Florida betting odds maker breakdown: What’s On The Line
The Seminoles (6-5, 4-4) have won four of their last five to become bowl eligible for the 28th straight season, coming off a 29-26 win over Maryland in their home finale. The No.1 Gators (11-0, 7-0) have wrapped up a spot in the SEC title game against Alabama, and they’re looking to send their seniors, including quarterback Tim Tebow, off to graduation with a win in their final home game, as well as a perfect 4-0 mark against the rival Seminoles, who are trying to halt a five-game skid against the Gators. Florida can’t afford a loss in the race for the national title.

Betting Edge: Florida

Florida State vs Florida betting odds maker breakdown: Offense
FSU freshman pivot EJ Manuel took over for the injured Christian Ponder three weeks ago at Clemson, and he threw three picks last week at Maryland after a solid debut at Wake Forest. With a young quarterback, the Seminoles need to try and establish the running game with Lonnie Pryor, Jermaine Thomas and Manuel himself. With Ponder, the Seminoles were an aerial team, but they’ll have to change their ways for an upset because Manuel’s inexperience puts them at a slight disadvantage.

The Gators got some good practice in their 62-3 warm-up win over Florida International, racking up 584 yards, including 361 through the air. However, the Florida offense hasn’t been that high-powered against good defenses, especially Tebow and the aerial attack. Still, they do have the No.9 ground game in the nation, featuring the grittiness of Tebow and the explosiveness of Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey.

Betting Edge: Florida

Florida State vs Florida betting odds maker breakdown: Defense
The reason for the fall in FSU’s sports betting odds is their abysmal defense, which ranks 106th in the country. The players are trying to send retiring coordinator Mickey Andrews, who has been in Tallahassee since 1984, out on a high but they still gave up 410 yards, including 196 on the ground, to Maryland. It’s been strange to see a Florida State defense play this badly.

The Gators are behind only Alabama in the nation in defense, allowing a high of 20 points while holding eight of their 11 opponents under 100 yards in rushing. Having virtually their entire defense from last year back has been the key to the Gators staying atop the SEC, and the Seminoles may be in for a long day in “The Swamp” on Saturday.

Betting Edge: Florida

Florida State vs Florida betting odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
Guard Rodney Hudson (knee) missed his first game all season last week against Maryland, and he would be a big loss for the FSU offensive line.

Linebacker A.J. Jones (knee) won’t play, while defensive end Jermaine Cunningham (shoulder) missed the Florida International game. Guard Carl Johnson (ankle) and center Maurkice Pouncey (bone bruise) will play this week.

Betting Edge: Florida State

Florida State vs Florida betting breakdown: Outlook and Pick
The Gators own a 32-19-2 record in this rivalry, and they’ve won five in a row over the Seminoles, covering the spread in four of those games even as it gets higher and higher. 24.5 points may seem to be too many to lay with Florida, who is 4-5-1 ATS this year, and the teams that they have covered against is as follows: Troy, at Kentucky, Georgia and Florida International. However, emotions will be running high on this Senior Day, and the Florida offense will run through the porous FSU defense. Meanwhile, their experienced defense will want to send their seniors off with a big rivalry win.

BLAKE’S PICK: Florida -24.5

The sportsbook has you covered from sideline to sideline for all the best lines, odds and props in the industry. For more on the Florida State vs Florida matchup, check out our stats section.



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