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Music City Bowl Betting Predictions – North Carolina State Must Win In Vandy's Home State

Posted by Blake Frazier on 12/20/2012 5:34:19 PM

The North Carolina State Wolfpack have fired one coach, Tom O'Brien, and hired another, Dave Doeren. A program in search of improvement will try to win a bowl in the state of Tennessee.

2012 Music City Bowl –
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Vanderbilt Commodores – Monday, December 31
Betting line: Vanderbilt -7.5

Why North Carolina State Will Win

It's likely that mma betting experts who follow college football on the side are aware of the weakness of Vanderbilt's schedule in 2012. North Carolina State will look across the way and see a Vanderbilt team that has won five SEC games this year, but five games against teams that do not have a winning record: Ole Miss, Missouri, Auburn, Tennessee, and Kentucky. Only Ole Miss has a non-losing record at 6-6, and one must also note that Vanderbilt did not blow out most of those teams. Vanderbilt came from 17 points down to beat Ole Miss by a whisker. Vanderbilt barely beat Auburn and similarly squeaked by Missouri. This is a team without a particularly consistent offense. It thrived in the second half of the season against noticeably bad teams, but North Carolina State is a very competent team with some legitimate weapons.

Mike Glennon is a strong-armed quarterback who can enable North Carolina State's offense to be very potent. Glennon converted multiple fourth downs on a last-minute touchdown drive that enabled North Carolina State to stun eventual Atlantic Coast Conference champion Florida State  back in October. The Wolfpack erased a 16-0 halftime deficit, shut out Florida State in the second half, and pulled off a 17-16 win that showcased the full extent of their talents. North Carolina State is not Kentucky or Tennessee. Vanderbilt could be in for a long day if it can't defend the Wolfpack's passing attack.

Why Vanderbilt Will Win

When college football betting students assess this tilt, they'll contend that while Vanderbilt might not be an elite team, it has responded to adversity with the decisiveness of a good team, one that expects to win. In the middle of the 2012 season, Vanderbilt was 3-4, muddling along on Oct. 26 and trying to find a way forward. Then, however, the Commodores reeled off five straight wins to finish at 8-4 and put them in position to win a ninth game, something that has not been done at Vanderbilt in several decades. The last Vanderbilt team to win even as many as eight games was in 1982.

Yes, you could make the argument that Vanderbilt is beating bad teams, but the thing to realize is that for so many years, the Commodores didn't even beat those bad teams. They found ways to lose in the most winnable kinds of situations. This is a team with a different and vastly improved mindset. It lost in a bowl game last season but should now be ready to flourish in this year's trip to the postseason.

Who Will Win

Vanderbilt is playing a semi-home game, for one thing. Also, North Carolina State is in between coaches, with the new regime waiting to take the reins in earnest. Vanderbilt is likely to play with more energy and clarity. This is just not a good setup for the Wolfpack.

College Football Betting Pick: Vanderbilt

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