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Ohio State vs Penn State Odds - OSU's Pryor can't beat Penn State on his own

Posted by Blake Frazier on 11/2/2009 2:27:21 PM
football betting linesSportsbook players always look forward to the annual Ohio State vs Penn State matchup, and this year’s edition in Happy Valley is no exception as the two are trying to stay in the Big Ten race, currently led by Iowa. The Buckeyes have won four consecutive Big Ten titles, but they’re a one-trick pony this year with Terrelle Pryor, and that won’t be enough to win.

Ohio State vs Penn State Odds: Penn State -3.5

  • WHAT: NCAA football betting
  • WHEN: Saturday, November 7, 3:30 PM ET
  • WHERE: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
  • KEY STAT: Ohio State has won six of their last 10 against Penn State
  • PICK: Penn State -3.5

Ohio State vs Penn State odds maker breakdown: What’s On The Line
The No.16 Buckeyes (7-2, 4-1) have won their last two games by a combined score of 83-7 since losing at Purdue, and with Iowa coming to town next week, this game is huge. The No.11 Nittany Lions (8-1, 4-1) are still in the hunt despite losing to Iowa, and a win over Ohio State would complicate the Big Ten picture if the Buckeyes were to beat Iowa next week. Oh yeah: Ohio State has won or shared the Big Ten title every year since 2005. That year, and last year, they split it with Penn State. Both have a lot to lose at Happy Valley this weekend.

Betting Edge: Draw

Ohio State vs Penn State odds maker breakdown: Offense
Sophomore pivot Terrelle Pryor hasn’t impressed this year, but to be fair, he’s hindered by a conservative play-calling coach in Jim Tressel, and he has no weapons around him. The Buckeyes are 63rd in offense, including 94th through the air, and Pryor is their leading rusher, which is never a good sign. Running back Dan Herron returned in a 45-0 mauling of New Mexico State, which helps.

The Nittany Lions are 24th in the country offensively, and they’re very balanced. Quarterback Daryll Clark doesn’t make many mistakes and Evan Royster is averaging just under 100 yards a game out of the backfield. It took a while for Clark and a young group of receivers to get used to another other, but he has averaged over 256 yards in Penn State’s last four games.

Betting Edge: Penn State

Ohio State vs Penn State odds maker breakdown: Defense
The Buckeyes are always close to the top of the defensive rankings, which usually gives them a shot at an online betting win. Ohio State is sixth in the country this year, with Ross Homan and Brian Rolle taking over at linebacker for the graduated James Laurinaitis. The Buckeyes have also allowed a NCAA-low 9.3 points per game.

Guess who is tied with Ohio State in points allowed? The Nittany Lions are just as stingy, and they’re one spot above the Buckeyes at fifth in the nation. Josh Hull and Navorro Bowman are a solid pair of linebackers, while Kurt Coleman marshals an effective secondary.

Betting Edge: Draw

Ohio State vs Penn State odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
Kicker Aaron Pettrey (knee) was injured against New Mexico State, and this is important given the strength of these two defenses as field goals could rule the day. Defensive lineman Dexter Larimore (knee) has missed the last month, but he’s trying to get healthy for Saturday’s showdown.

Linebacker Sean Lee (knee) came back for the first time since September 19th as the Nittany Lions rolled 34-13 at Northwestern, so Penn State is good on the injury front.

Betting Edge: Penn State

Ohio State vs Penn State betting breakdown: Outlook and Pick
The Nittany Lions are 3.5-point favorites at home, and last year’s 13-6 win at Ohio State was their fourth in 10 meetings with the Buckeyes. Since 1997, the Buckeyes are 3-4 at Happy Valley, but two of those wins have come in the last three trips. Not this year, though. The Nittany Lions are too balanced on offense, while their defense basically has to focus on Pryor and that’s it. Herron just came back and won’t be that big of a difference-maker. There will be no Big Ten title for Ohio State this year, sharing or otherwise.

BLAKE’S PICK: Penn State -3.5

For more sports betting tips and picks on the road to the BCS championship, follow Blake in’s The Betting Edge. For more on the Ohio State vs Penn State matchup, please visit our stats section.

Blake Frazier is one of's college football experts.



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