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Predictions For Betting On Texas Oklahoma State – The Nation Gets To See If Texas Is For Real This Year

Posted by Blake Frazier on 9/25/2012 6:42:54 PM

The Texas Longhorns have been fed a series of cream puffs and softballs so far this season. The Oklahoma State Cowboys should be able to push them in Stillwater, Okla., this Saturday night.

Texas Longhorns @ Oklahoma State Cowboys – Saturday, September 29    
Online sports betting line: Texas -2.5

Why Texas Will Win

No college football betting expert would contest the notion that the Longhorns are in position to win this game because of their defensive prowess. Texas has one of the very best defensive lines in the United States, physical and deep with plenty of speed on the edges as well. Defensive coordinator Manny Diaz has been a good hire, having replaced former coordinator and coach-in-waiting Will Muschamp, who decided to become the head man at Florida instead of biding his time in an attempt to take over for head coach Mack Brown. Diaz has revived Texas' defense by placing an emphasis on strength in the trenches.

The Big 12 is a pass-happy league with quarterbacks such as Oklahoma State signal caller Wes Lunt lighting up the Central Plains with an ample amount of aerials. Texas, with a fierce pass rush, can intimidate Lunt and force him to throw multiple interceptions. If the Longhorns can indeed rattle Lunt and get three or four takeaways, they can minimize Oklahoma State's point total but also create short fields that will take pressure away from the Longhorns' offense. Texas is strong enough on defense to bull-rush Oklahoma State's offensive line and outmuscle the Cowboys, especially in the second half. This is the Longhorns' route to a road win in the state of Oklahoma.

Why Oklahoma State Will Win

The best betting reason to favor Oklahoma State is that its opponent is not a proven commodity – not in any meaningful sense, at least. Texas has enjoyed an undeniably solid start to their season, but it has to be said that the Longhorns have not been tested to any appreciable extent. Texas has played a road game, but not against a tough opponent. The Longhorns feasted on an Ole Miss club that is probably the worst in the Southeastern Conference, with only Kentucky existing as a possible exception.

Texas quarterback David Ash has demonstrated a reasonable degree of competence, but he looked very shaky, to say the least, against legitimately good defenses over the course of the 2011 season. Ash was wobbly enough that Case McCoy replaced him for a number of games in a Longhorn quarterback carousel that never really resolved itself last season. Is Ash ready to deliver the goods against a decent Big 12 foe, the defending league champion from Stillwater, Okla.? It's hard to answer that question at this point in time, and that is exactly why Oklahoma State has such a reasonable shot at winning.

Oklahoma State's offense probably won't dominate Texas' formidable defense, but if the Cowboys put up a respectable total of 27 or 28 points, Ash will have to make plays in the fires of crunch time, and his Texas career has not yet brought him to a point where he knows he can succeed under pressure. Wyoming, New Mexico, and then Ole Miss have not brought out Ash's competitive fires. Those three teams did not push Ash to the limits of his composure or carry him to any kind of breaking point. If Ash has to lead his team to a go-ahead touchdown drive in the final two minutes, and he has to go at least two-thirds of the field to do the deed, will he get the job done? Probably not.

Who Will Win

It’s quite possible that Oklahoma State can cobble together enough offense to pull the slight upset, but as long as Texas doesn't commit turnovers, it can and should fend off the Cowboys.

College Football Betting Pick: Texas

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