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Tips For Betting On New Mexico Bowl – New Mexico Bowl Features Aggressive Offenses

Posted by Blake Frazier on 12/6/2012 5:49:16 PM

The Nevada Wolf Pack and the Arizona Wildcats are both coached by men who are considered offensive innovators within the wider community of college football coaches.

2012 New Mexico Bowl
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Arizona Wildcats – Saturday, December 15    
Online sports betting line: Arizona -8.5

Why Nevada Will Win

Few college football betting experts thought that Nevada would beat Boise State for the Mountain West title, and sure enough, Nevada fell short this season. Yet, the Wolf Pack are in a bowl game, and they're going bowling for a reason: They have plenty of talent. Coach Chris Ault has had better talents at Nevada, mainly current San Francisco 49er starting quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Still, it would be short sighted to ignore the monster season running back Stefphon Jefferson had for the Wolf Pack. The junior went for just over 1,700 yards and 22 touchdowns, serving as the key to Nevada’s seventh ranked rushing attack and No. 11 offense. Quarterback Cody Fajardo was not asked to do as much in the passing game though he did have a respectable 2,500-yard season with 17 touchdown passes.

Given its ability to run the football, Nevada is very strong on third downs where the Pack have converted over 53 percent of their opportunities, good for third in the nation in that regard. The Wolf Pack have converted 60 percent of fourth downs on the year as well and are very comfortable going for it on fourth down.

While he’s not called on to kick much, kicker Allen Hardison has converted seven of his eight attempts. The Wolf Pack are dangerous on punt returns, where they rank fourth in the nation at over 16 yards per return. Nevada can score quickly and in bunches, and if you’re not sound in your defensive approach, you can be gashed by this squad.

Why Arizona Will Win

The best betting reason to take the Wildcats in this game is that they simply have more (and better) studs in the stable compared to Nevada. Arizona is not a perfect team, but one thing to realize is that Nevada is more of a running team, and the Wildcats have a defense that is especially vulnerable to the pass. USC wide receiver Marqise Lee produced the game of the year in college football for any pass catcher when he hauled in 16 passes for 345 yards against the Wildcats' meager secondary. Nevada does not throw the ball well enough to be able to beat Arizona's defense at its weakest point. Meanwhile, Arizona's offense attacks the field as much as Nevada's offense does, if not more so. If this game does turn into a track meet, the Wildcats are very much equipped to thrive. Head coach Rich Rodriguez, who turned West Virginia into a winning program by giving it a high-octane offense, won't mind seeing a 100-point game.

Who Will Win

Ultimately, Arizona has more upside as a program. The Wildcats are stronger up front and have more overall athleticism. The more urgent reality to consider is that Arizona is probably going to be really good under Rodriguez before too long. The notion that Arizona is going to use this game as a stepping stone for the 2013 season will carry a lot of weight; the Wildcats are going to take this game very seriously, and when a favored team takes a game seriously, it normally wins big.

College Football Betting Pick: Arizona

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