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Bears vs 49ers Odds - Bears will air it out as 49ers' nosedive continues

Posted by Stan Simmons on 11/9/2009 11:01:22 AM
NFL oddsThe Bears vs 49ers odds are a battle of desperation. After looking like contenders in the first few weeks of NFL betting, both Chicago and San Francisco have stumbled badly. It’s safe to say they’ll each come out angry this Thursday night; something has to give.

Bears vs 49ers Odds: 49ers -3 (Total: 43.5)

  • WHAT: NFL betting
  • WHEN: Thursday, November 12, 8:20 p.m. ET
  • WHERE: Candlestick Park in San Francisco, CA
  • KEY STAT: 49ers allow 241 passing yards per game
  • PICK: Bears +3; Over 43.5

Bears vs 49ers odds maker breakdown: The Storyline
The Bears have lost three of four and, while their passing offense has been decent, the Monsters of the Midway look nothing like the defensive juggernaut they used to be. Big passing offenses in particular keep lighting them up. Meanwhile, the 49ers have lost four straight games, partly because of their depleted offensive line. They’ve beaten every team in the weak NFC West but looked like pretenders against every other opponent. This week’s storyline will be one of redemption for one team and panic for the other.

Bears vs 49ers odds maker breakdown: Offense
The Bears’ offense is far from perfect; their O-line apparently isn’t built to run block. Matt Forte is a solid back but he doesn’t have the breakaway speed to make something out of nothing. He needs a hole to hit and hasn’t had many this season; the Bears rank 28th in the NFL in rushing. Chicago makes up for its running problems with a fairly explosive passing game. Jay Cutler still makes bad throws sometimes but he’s done a good job maximizing the speed of Devin Hester and Johnny Knox.

The 49ers’ passing attack looks more competent since Alex Smith took over and online betting fans are taking notice. However, losing tackle Joe Staley for the season was a devastating blow; Smith got sacked four times in the 49ers’ Week 9 loss to Tennessee. Frank Gore is a rock but hasn’t been as good as advertised; take away his three big runs of 79, 80 and 64 yards and he actually averages 2.9 yards per carry (77 rushes, 224 yards).

San Francisco may have the more balanced attack but the Bears have way more big-play ability and “dangerousness.”

Betting Edge: Bears

Bears vs 49ers odds maker breakdown: Defense
It’s time to stop making excuses for the Bears’ “D” – it’s simply not that great against the pass. Though the Bears aren’t allowing huge yardage, receivers are getting behind Chicago defensive backs regularly. The opposing quarterback has tossed five touchdown passes against the Bears twice in the last three weeks. You have to think Chicago will have trouble against Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis.

After a strong start, Mike Singletary’s tough 49ers defense is sagging. They still defend the run quite well (No. 5 in the NFL) but that won’t help them against a Bears team that isn’t succeeding on the ground anyway. San Francisco allows 241 yards per game through the air, good for 24th in the NFL. Even in a losing effort, Jay Cutler showed last week that he can post big numbers. You can bet he’ll test the secondary every chance he gets.

Betting Edge: Draw

Bears vs 49ers odds for total: 43.5
Early in the season, no sportsbook bettor would expect offensive fireworks between the Bears and 49ers. Now that each defense has trouble defending big pass plays, however, it’s safe to expect some scoring. I see each team approaching the mid-to-high 20s, so going over the total is a solid bet.

Pick: Over 43.5

Bears vs 49ers odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
Staley’s injury devastates the San Fran O-line and Nate Clements is missed in the secondary. Chicago is feeling the injury bug too; Brian Urlacher was lost for the season in Week 1 and now Charles Tillman is questionable after hurting his shoulder last week.

Betting Edge: Draw

Bears vs 49ers betting breakdown: Outlook and Pick
Neither of these teams is playing with much confidence now; each is frustrated, flawed and struggling to overcome injuries. It’s tempting to go with the home team but since the 49ers are allowing so much passing yardage, I like the Bears’ big-play ability to push them over the edge. Go with Chicago in a minor upset.

STAN’S PICK: Bears +3

Check the sportsbook all week for current Bears vs 49ers odds. Also, keeping reading the Betting Edge for Stan Simmons’ top-notch NFL sports betting analysis.

Stan Simmons is one of's NFL experts.



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