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Betting On Super Bowl – A Look At The Line Heading Into The Final Week Of Preparation

Posted by Stan Simmons on 1/30/2012 6:03:51 PM
betting on super bowl

Online betting players should be getting down to business now as the week leading up to the Super Bowl is getting underway, which means the New England Patriots and New York Giants are in Indianapolis, or they should be en route. Here is a look at the odds as the Super Bowl approaches.

What: NFL Betting
When: Sunday, February 5th, 6:20 PM ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

Why The New York Giants Are Underdogs

The Giants could be still getting penalized for their inconsistency throughout the regular season; remember, they were only 9-7 en route to winning the NFC East, and it also took a healthy collapse by the Dallas Cowboys to get them there. There were also enough shaky results during the regular season that it would cause linesmakers to think twice about making the Giants favorites, such as two losses against Washington, and they also lost to Seattle and a Philadelphia team that underachieved badly. Quarterback Eli Manning has been solid for most of the season, but you never know when “bad Eli”, also known as the guy that threw three picks each against Seattle and Washington, will show up. The running game has struggled badly for most of the season before coming around later on, and there is no guarantee that they’ll show up on Sunday, although you should take their performance against San Francisco; the 49ers have the league’s best run defense.

However, the Giants are dangerous NFL betting underdogs in this instance because they’ve caught fire at the right time and the similarities to the Super Bowl winners of four years ago are scary. Manning could be playing the best football of his life right now and his performance against the 49ers was gutsy as he stood in the pocket and took some big shots. The defensive line is controlling the game and taking pressure off a suspect secondary. The Giants were also 6-2 ATS as an underdog during the regular season, and they’re 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.

Why The New England Patriots Are Favored

The Patriots have a wealth of experience and the duo of head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady have combined to win three of the four Super Bowls they’ve gone to. They were the No.1 seed in the AFC and they haven’t lost since they fell 24-20 in Week 9….to the New York Giants. Their three losses have come by a combined 15 points, so it’s not like they’ve ever been blown out this season. They would also love to avenge that loss to the Giants from the regular season, not to mention the Super Bowl loss from four years ago; there are still a lot of players in New England that remember the sting of that day and they also remember that they finished 18-1 that year instead of 19-0. Motivation can be a huge factor in how a team decides to play and you know even though the Patriots will say all the right things leading up to the game (“we’re only focused on this game”, “we’re not thinking about four years ago”), history is going to play a major role in how they prepare for Sunday’s game.

But will it be a detriment to their play? The Patriots have to focus that emotion into strong play, and you can’t deny the fact that they’ve lost their last two against the Giants, including the loss earlier this season at home. The Patriots also may have the biggest injury worry in the game as tight end Rob Gronkowski is struggling with an ankle injury, and even though he’ll probably still play, how healthy will he be by gametime?

Line Moves

NFL betting odds opened with the Patriots as a 3-point favorite in Indianapolis, but they’re down to 2.5 points now and the line shouldn’t go under two, if it even moves at all again before gametime. You have to watch the injury report this season as that will be the major reason for any line moves, and the Gronkowski injury is going to be watched closely all week as he has been a force all season for the Patriots.

The outcome of the regular-season game likely also played a factor in the line move as the Patriots were favored by 9.5 points at home and the Giants went into Gillette Stadium to come away with a huge victory. You cannot underestimate the effect that could have on both teams as it was the only loss at “The Razor” for the Patriots this season. Even though the Super Bowl will be played on a neutral field, the game in New England has had a huge effect on the sports betting odds for this game.



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