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Bills vs Jaguars Betting Odds - Jags need a win to get into playoff picture; Bills to cover

Posted by D.J. Tomkins on 11/20/2009 3:59:19 PM
NFL lineThe Bills vs Jaguars betting odds pits two teams that are heading in opposite directions right now, as the Jaguars have looked confident in recent weeks while the Bills just fired their head coach. At 5-4, the Jags need to keep winning if they hope to make the playoffs. Currently, they are one game back of the Denver Broncos/San Diego Chargers and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Online betting cappers should stick with the Jags, who have more to play for and are simply the better team.

Bills vs Jaguars betting odds: Jaguars -8.5
WHAT: NFL betting
WHEN: Sunday November 22nd – 1:00 PM ET
WHERE: Jacksonville Municipal Stadium – Jacksonville, FL
KEY STAT: Jaguars 6-12 ATS when favored by 6.5 or more under Jack Del Rio
PICK: Bills +8.5, over 42.5

Bills vs Jaguars betting odds maker breakdown: The Storyline
The Bills fired head coach Dick Jauron earlier this week, which is always tough for any team in the middle of the season. The Bills won’t be able to fully focus on this contest, and obviously, preparation may not be the same without the man that has led them this season. Right now, they don’t have much of an identity - or much of a team.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars have won two straight and three of their last four games to get into the playoff picture. They have committed to Maurice Jones-Drew on the ground, and that has paved the way to plenty of success. That should be the case again this weekend.

Betting Edge: Jaguars

Bills vs Jaguars betting odds maker breakdown: Offense
The Bills offense is simply anemic right now. Ryan Fitzpatrick will take over at quarterback for the time being, but he hasn’t proven to be much of an upgrade over Trent Edwards. The passing game has been brutal - even with Terrell Owens and Lee Evans on the outside - and it won’t be much better this week. The Bills will have to hope that the loss of Rashean Mathis (for the Jags) is enough to create some openings.

For Jacksonville, look for them to run the ball plenty. NFL betting fans have watched him rack up 530 yards over his last four games, which is significantly more than the 330 he totaled in his first five contests. The Bills rush defense is the worst in the NFL, which is going to be the main reason why they lose.

Betting Edge: Jaguars

Bills vs Jaguars betting odds maker breakdown: Defense
As mentioned, the Bills rush defense ranks dead last in the NFL. Last week, the Titans ran for 168 yards on 35 carries, and this week the numbers could be even worse. The Bills are also going up against a hot quarterback in David Garrard, who has posted a QB rating of 100 or more in three straight games. They’ll have to play much better than they have.

For Jacksonville, their defense isn’t the reason they have turned their season around – it’s clearly been their offense. The Jags have still allowed 220 points in nine games, which makes them one of the worst scoring defenses in the league. They don’t do anything particularly well, and when you mix in the injury to Mathis, the Bills should be able to move the ball and potentially play keep away.

Betting Edge: Even

Bills vs Jaguars betting odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
Both teams have key injuries, as the Bills’ long list added guard Demetrius Bell last week, forcing them to move around parts on their offensive line once again. The Bills may also be without linebacker Keith Ellison (thigh), further diminishing their poor run defense.

For Jacksonville, shutdown corner Rashean Mathis won’t likely play. That’s a huge loss for this team as he is their best defender.

Betting Edge: Bills

Bills vs Jaguars betting odds for total: 42.5
The total for this contest is relatively low for two teams that should be able to put up points against bad defenses. Fitzpatrick should provide a spark for the Bills while the Jags will get their fair share of yards and points.

Pick: Over 42.5

Bills vs Jaguars betting odds breakdown: Outlook and Pick
Sportsbook odds makers have set this spread too high. The Jags are clearly the better team and they probably won’t lose this game, but the Bills should get an emotional kick in the behind from the firing of their coach. Look for the Bills to play physical and maybe even surprise the Jags to start. As history shows us, laying over a touchdown with Jacksonville isn’t a profitable idea.

DJ’S PICK: Bills +8.5

For daily sports betting picks and analysis, check out the Betting Edge. There’s also plenty more numbers on the Bills vs Jaguars betting odds in our stats center.



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