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Broncos Dolphins Betting – Fish Get First Win Of 2011 In Clash Of Hapless Teams

Posted by Stan Simmons on 10/19/2011 6:20:16 PM

Sometimes, online betting players have to sit through a pair of bad teams in order to get to the outcome, but sometimes, those teams end up putting on the best games. This week’s bad-team game comes from Miami where the Dolphins host Denver as both teams have below-average quarterbacks under center, but the Dolphins will ride their defense to their first win of the season.

What: NFL Betting
When: Sunday, October 23rd, 1:00 PM ET
Where: Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL
Pick: Miami Dolphins -1

Why Bet On Denver Broncos (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS)

The Broncos are coming off a bye that couldn’t come any sooner, and the fans have gotten their wish as Tim Tebow will make the start this week over Kyle Orton, who denied asking for a trade. But that isn’t the only major change to the offense as receiver Brandon Lloyd was shipped off to St. Louis, and with Eddie Royal not happy, there should be more room at wideout for Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas, who is returning to the lineup after tearing his Achilles in the winter. These are some big changes for an offense that is 26th in the NFL, so Denver fans should temper their expectations. On defense, where the Broncos are ranked 24th, rookie Von Miller has been fantastic with five sacks and a pair of forced fumbles, but former sack leader Elvis Dumervil has yet to register a sack after missing all of last year, although he has missed more games with injury.

But the big story here for NFL betting fans is Tebow, who will be honored with rest of the members of the 2008 national championship team from Florida, and he had his issues last year when he took over the last couple of games, but the Broncos have to find out whether or not they can go forward with the former Heisman winner. Look for a steady diet of Willis McGahee, though, as the Broncos’ running back returns to the city where he grew up and he is also a former Hurricane. When it comes to injury, safety Brian Dawkins (neck) doesn’t look like he’ll be playing, so the Broncos signed Rafael Bush. Overall, the Broncos are at least keeping their games close, with three of their four losses coming by five points or less.

Why Bet On Miami Dolphins (0-5 SU, 0-5 ATS)

The Dolphins have a short week after a 24-6 loss on the road against the New York Jets, and the Matt Moore era is still without a touchdown pass, although Brandon Marshall dropped a surefire score against the Jets. Moore was 16-of-34 for 204 yards and a pair of picks (including one that was ran back 100 yards by Darrelle Revis for a score), the Dolphins were 2-of-13 for third down and 0-for-3 in the red zone. Marshall had six catches for 109 yards, but again, he dropped a touchdown in the first half that would have given the Dolphins some life. Reggie Bush ran 10 times for 71 yards, so that’s a good sign, but the Miami offense isn’t in good shape. The defense was the best part of the game for the Dolphins as they held them in the game for the first half at least, and the Jets didn’t get a first down until late in the second quarter.

The defense may have to pick it up again unless Moore can get it together, but he has to get some help. Marshall leads the NFL in drops and he simply can’t afford to leave his quarterback hanging like that. The running game should take more priority with Bush and Daniel Thomas if the Dolphins are going to get their first win of the season. If they don’t, head coach Tony Sparano may be out of a job according to some reports. Bush was the main injury worry as he left the Jets’ game with an ailing neck, but he was likely held out for precautionary measures, meaning that the Dolphins weren’t going to win anyway.

How It Will Play Out

The Dolphins are a 1-point NFL betting favorite at home against the Broncos in a matchup of two teams that wagering players have probably been staying away from all season. The Broncos are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five against the Dolphins and in Miami, Denver is 0-2 SU and ATS since 2001. In the last five meetings, three games have gone under the posted total and you should lean towards the under again as the offenses are, well, awful.

Go with the home team as Moore has a few more weapons on his side, all he has to do is find them. Tebow is going to play hard, we all know this about him and he’ll likely be a little more inspired because of the pregame ceremony reliving his glory days at Florida. But his receivers are poor and unless McGahee has a monster game, the Broncos won’t put that many points on the board. Take Miami to cover the sports betting spread here.

Broncos Dolphins Betting Pick: Miami Dolphins



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