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Colts Patriots Betting Predictions – Luck Versus Brady Matchup Takes Center Stage

Posted by Tony Bryant on 11/13/2012 5:30:35 PM

The publicity surrounding this game won't focus on the fact that two 6-3 teams are playing. It will focus on Andrew Luck and Tom Brady, meeting for the first time on an NFL field.

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots – Sunday, November 18    
Betting line: New England -10.5

Why Indianapolis Will Win

The NFL betting calculus in this contest is based on factors other than the quarterbacks, but if you only compared the quarterbacks, you could say that the Colts have an edge. Yes, really.

The fact that the Colts are 6-3 and very much in the playoff hunt is a testament to the quality and leadership of quarterback Andrew Luck. The Colts conducted so many epic battles with the New England Patriots over the past decade, when Peyton Manning was the man who dueled with Tom Brady. The fact that Luck is now opposing Brady in a Colts-Patriots clash is impressive enough in its own right. The fact that the Colts have the same 6-3 record as the Patriots is a million times more amazing.

Luck's ability to see the field and understand the game is hard to find in a rookie signal caller. This is simply a very special player, one of the NFL's anointed ones. As long as Luck remains healthy, he's going to be a top-tier quarterback in the NFL. He is already one of the better quarterbacks in the league – no, he's not anywhere close to the very top. That's reserved for Brady and Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. Nevertheless, Luck is making winning decisions most of the time, and his teammates naturally have complete trust in him despite his rookie label and identity.

Luck can certainly go into Massachusetts and scorch the New England secondary, which has played very poorly in recent weeks and does not inspire very much confidence at the moment. The Colts should be able to score a considerable amount of points in this game, and that could be enough to push them over the top.

Why New England Will Win

When football betting pundits size up this game, they're going to realize that the Patriots are at home. They're going to play in the kind of environment – with a revved-up crowd – that will be intimidating for Luck and the rest of the Colts' offense. Luck won last week on the road, but that was in Jacksonville against a tiny crowd and a meager opponent in the form of the Jaguars. The Patriots are going to present a different feel for Luck, and what's more is that the Patriots' head coach, Bill Belichick, is going to be sure to confuse Luck with disguised formations and various other tactics that the rookie has likely not seen to this point in his NFL career.

Another reason to take the Patriots? Tom Brady. Going up against a young and unproven Colts defense, Brady is sure to light up the scoreboard and outpace anything Luck might do on the other side.

Who Will Win

It’s possible that Andrew Luck will rise to the occasion, but the odds and percentages suggest that he'll have a tough day at the office. Tom Brady owns these kinds of moments. He will outduel Luck and power the Patriots to victory in a close game.

NFL Football Betting Pick: Indianapolis


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