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Colts vs Titans Odds - Manning, Colts too smart to underestimate Tennessee

Posted by Stan Simmons on 10/6/2009 2:45:12 PM
NFL latest linesThe Colts vs Titans odds were supposed to be a crucial AFC South showdown between juggernauts, weren’t they? Here we are entering Week 5 with the Colts 4-0 and the Titans 0-4. Is a matchup against a powerhouse just what Tennessee needs to break its sportsbook slump? Or is an Indy blowout on the horizon?

Colts vs Titans Odds: Colts -3.5 (Total: 45.5)

  • WHAT: NFL betting
  • WHEN: Sunday, October 6, 8:20 p.m. ET
  • WHERE: LP Field in Nashville, TN
  • KEY STAT: Colts are 12-0 versus teams with losing records over last three seasons
  • PICK: Colts -3.5; Over 45.5

Colts vs Titans odds maker breakdown: The Storyline
At 0-4, the Titans are as good as toast in the AFC playoff picture if they don’t beat the Colts Sunday night. A loss could also cost Kerry Collins his starting quarterback job and open the door for Vince Young. The Colts simply have to ensure they don’t look past Tennessee, whom some NFL betting pundits call the best 0-4 team in league history.

Colts vs Titans odds maker breakdown: Offense
It’s a phenomenal passing game versus a phenomenal running game. Peyton Manning increases his legend each week, posting eye-popping numbers despite losing Marvin Harrison in the offseason and Anthony Gonzalez in Week 1. He’s maximizing Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark and even making young Pierre Garcon look like a Pro Bowler. The Titans answer back with an elite ground game, featuring NFL leading rusher Chris Johnson.

The online sports betting edge goes to Indy, however. Whereas Donald Brown and Joseph Addai at least have potential to go off for the Colts’ running game despite their slowish start to the year, we can’t say the same about Kerry Collins and the Titans’ low-ceiling passing attack. The Colts can inflict offensive damage in more ways than the Titans can.

Betting Edge: Colts

Colts vs Titans odds maker breakdown: Defense
These teams are opposites defensively. For all their 2008 glory, the Titans can’t stop the pass this season, allowing an NFL-worst 282.3 yards per game so far. That’s without facing Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Phillip Rivers, all of whom await them on the schedule. Tennessee has been stingy against the run even with Albert Haynesworth’s departure but that’s fine with the Colts, as they’re a passing team.

Meanwhile, Indy defends the pass well, allowing just over 200 yards per game. Their run defense isn’t as statistically bad as you think but we all know good running teams still carve them up, especially while Bob Sanders is out of the lineup. Chris Johnson should have a massive day for Tennessee.

Betting Edge: Draw

Colts vs Titans odds for total: 45.5
The Titans allow 27 points per game and haven’t faced an offense of Indy’s caliber yet, so the Colts shouldn’t have much trouble tossing 30 points on the board. Consequently, Tennessee should hit pay dirt a few times too if it sticks with a run-first game plan. Expect a high-scoring affair.

Pick: Over 45.5

Colts vs Titans odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
Both teams have stinging absences on defense. Ballhawk cornerback Cortland Finnegan missed Week 4 and doesn’t look good to play this week, which is great news for Manning. The Colts have more good players hurt, however; speed rusher Dwight Freeney should remain out, as should safety Bob Sanders and wideout Anthony Gonzalez. The Colts are missing their top two defensive starters, so Tennessee has the edge.

Betting Edge: Titans

Colts vs Titans betting breakdown: Outlook and Pick
Playing at home in a nationally televised game, the Titans won’t roll over and die. Especially because of Freeney’s and Sanders’ absences, Tennessee will score enough to keep the game relatively close. However, the Colts don’t get overconfident against weaker teams. They’re 12-0 against teams with losing records in the last three years. They’ll keep their foot on the gas and perpetuate Tennessee’s misery.

STAN’S PICK: Colts -3.5

For Colts vs Titans odds and other sports betting advice, is your ultimate one-stop shop.

Stan Simmons is one of's NFL experts.



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