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Dolphins vs Patriots Odds - Miami can't slow red-hot Brady, Patriots

Posted by Stan Simmons on 11/3/2009 11:44:05 AM
NFL betting linesDolphins vs Patriots odds will have a major impact on the playoff race. The Patriots (5-2) are leading the AFC East while the Dolphins (3-4) still have strong Wild Card hopes - especially since they're 3-0 within the division. This will be the first of two games sports betting fans will see New England and Miami meet in this season.

Dolphins vs Patriots odds: Patriots -10.5 (Total 47)

  • WHAT: NFL odds
  • WHEN: Sunday, Nov. 8 at 1:00 p.m. ET
  • WHERE: Gillette Stadium
  • KEY STAT: Dolphins are 25th in points allowed per game
  • PICK: Patriots -10.5

Dolphins vs Patriots odds maker breakdown: The Storyline
The Patriots are rolling after crushing their last two opponents 94-7. Of course, those opponents were Tennessee and Tampa Bay, so it's not as impressive as it might seem. Still, good teams don't let bad ones hang around and that hasn't been a problem for New England.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, beat the Jets 30-25 last week. They benefitted from a great deal of luck (and some huge special teams plays) to keep their playoff hopes alive, which is important after a second-half collapse against the Saints two weeks ago.

Dolphins vs Patriots odds maker breakdown: Offense
The long road to recover seems to have passed for Tom Brady. The superstar quarterback tossed nine touchdowns and averaged 344 passing yards in his last two games. Brady completed 78 percent of his passes in those starts and, finally, he again is one of the league's best quarterbacks. That's a huge plus since the Patriots don’t boast much of a running game; they're averaging 115 yards per game on the ground.

The Dolphins, on the other hand, rank third in the NFL in rushing (153 yards per game). They struggled mightily against the Jets last week, though, by managing just 52 yards on 23 carries. Speaking of struggling, quarterback Chad Henne has just 323 passing yards in his last two starts. That's not very encouraging for offshore sportsbook bettors.

Betting Edge: Patriots

Dolphins vs Patriots odds maker breakdown: Defense
The Pats have battened down the hatches over the past two weeks, giving up just seven points to the Titans and Buccaneers. New England ranks third in the NFL by allowing just 14 points per game. The Patriots are great at stopping the pass and hold their own against the run.

It's been a different story in Miami, where the Dolphins rank 25th in points per game at 25.3. The Dolphins are great at stuffing the run, but that doesn't really give them an advantage against New England. Miami has been much more susceptible against the pass so Brady should be in line for a big day.

Betting Edge: Patriots

Dolphins vs Patriots odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
Running back Fred Taylor remains on the shelf for New England. Defensive tackle Ty Warren is suffering through an ankle injury but should be good to go; he'll be needed against the Dolphins running game. Linebacker Channing Crowder didn't play for the Dolphins in Week 8 and it remains to be seen if he can play through a shoulder injury against New England.

Betting Edge: Even

Dolphins vs Patriots odds for total: 47
The Pats are a solid run-defending team and, coming off a bye week to prepare, they should be ready for the Wild Cat. No amount of preparation can save the Dolphins from Brady, however. New England will put its fair share of points up but Miami will struggle to score. Take the under.

Pick: UNDER 47

Dolphins vs Patriots betting breakdown: Outlook and Pick
New England makes perfect sense as a double-digit favorite. Head coach Bill Belichick has had a week off to not only prepare for the Wild Cat, but to develop a plan dedicated to harassing struggling quarterback Chad Henne. The Dolphins are going to be hopeless against Brady, so expect a big Patriots win and a crushing blow to Miami's playoff hopes.

DJ's PICK: Patriots -10.5

Visit the Sportsbook for the latest Dolphins vs Patriots odds and other NFL Week 9 matchups.

Stan Simmons is one of's NFL experts.



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