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Giants vs Broncos Betting Odds - Poor run defense, shaky offense mean another loss for Denver

Posted by Stan Simmons on 11/23/2009 12:57:28 PM
NFL linesThe Giants vs Broncos betting odds this week could be a nightmare or a major opportunity for the Broncos depending on how they - and NFL betting fans - view the situation. The freefalling Broncos’ flaws could be further exposed under the national TV spotlight or they could use the big Thanksgiving game as a chance for redemption.

Giants vs Broncos betting Odds: Giants -6.5
WHAT: NFL betting
WHEN: Thursday, November 26, 8:20 p.m. ET
WHERE: INVESCO Field at Mile High in Denver, CO
KEY STAT: Broncos have allowed 174 or more rushing yards in three straight games
PICK: Giants -6.5

Giants vs Broncos betting odds maker breakdown: The Storyline
Most online betting sharps took Denver’s 6-0 start with a grain of salt, realizing that the Broncos were playing way over their heads and due for a standings correction. But did anyone expect their fortune to turn this bad, this quickly? The Broncos have lost four straight and could slide out of the playoff picture if they don’t right the ship soon. The Giants were in a similar situation last week, having lost four straight after starting 5-0, but they finally snapped their skid with an overtime win over Atlanta. For New York, the goal is to start stringing wins together.

Giants vs Broncos betting odds maker breakdown: Offense
While they’ve taken their lumps from time to time, the Giants still field the NFL’s No. 4 overall offense. Eli Manning can pick apart defenses if the matchup is right and, while he’s not having a banner year, Brandon Jacobs can still soften up D-lines with his 264-pound frame.

The Denver offense looks like s sinking ship at the moment. Kyle Orton isn’t a prolific passer but he’s at least been comfortable in a caretaker role, so his absence last week due to an ankle injury hurt the team. Denver needs him back quickly, as Chris Simms was out of sync with Brandon Marshall. Rookie Knowshon Moreno needs to protect the football better if he wants to avoid another sideline shoving match with his own teammate (Marshall – who else?).

Betting Edge: Giants

Giants vs Broncos betting odds maker breakdown: Defense
After stymieing opponents earlier this season, the Bronco “D” is sagging against the run. The Chargers had little trouble moving the chains against them in Week 11 and Laddell Betts of all people ran wild on them the week prior. Denver’s pass defense is still strong in coverage but it’s not getting to the quarterback as well of late; it didn’t record a single sack on Phil Rivers last Sunday.

You’re heard of “bend but don’t break” defenses in sports betting circles but the Giants seem to be “break but don’t bend”; they’re the No. 2 unit in the league yardage-wise but rank near the bottom of the league in points allowed (23.5). Largely because of injuries to their secondary, the Giants still get beat for the odd big play.

Don’t be surprised if the Giants’ pass “D” bounces back this week. Consider that they’ve faced Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Donovan McNabb, Phil Rivers and Matt Ryan in consecutive weeks and only Brees topped 300 yards against them. Orton or Simms won’t pose the same threat.

Betting Edge: Giants

Giants vs Broncos betting odds for total: 42
These are two rough, tough teams who win with defense more than offense, so I’d bet under the total in this one. Even if Eli Manning finds Steve Smith or Hakeem Nicks for some big plays, the Broncos offense is sputtering badly enough that Denver alone should drag the point total below 42 points.

Pick: Under 42

Giants vs Broncos betting odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
The Giants finally welcomed corner Aaron Ross back to the lineup last week but played without middle linebacker Antonio Pierce, who has a bulging disk in his neck. They’re also missing starting corner Kenny Philips for the rest of the season, as he’s on injured reserve.

The Broncos’ most significant injury is Orton’s, but Brian Dawkins missed the second half of the Chargers game with a neck injury. Though Denver has the injury advantage if Orton plays, the current uncertainty makes this category a draw.

Betting Edge: Draw

Giants vs Broncos betting breakdown: Outlook and Pick
Against a team that is coming apart at the seams, complete with infighting, injuries and a rookie coach who suddenly looks lost, it’s safe to say the Giants smell blood. Look for New York to pressure whoever plays quarterback for Denver on Thursday night and commit to the run the same way Pittsburgh, Washington and San Diego did successfully over the last few weeks. Pick the Giants to win on the road.

STAN’S PICK: Giants -6.5

The sportsbook will update Giants vs Broncos odds throughout the week. Keep reading the Betting Edge for NFL picks on every game.



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