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Giants Patriots Betting – Expect Patriots To Get Revenge On Giants

Posted by Tony Bryant on 2/1/2012 4:39:35 PM
giants patriots betting

Sports betting players are almost ready for the Super Bowl on Sunday, and this week should be devoted to research, research and more research. There is only one game to focus on, but it’s the biggest game of the year, and we’re leaning towards New England to avenge a pair of losses against the New York Giants, including their memorable Super Bowl loss from four years ago.

What: NFL Betting
When: Sunday, February 5th, 6:20 PM ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Pick: New England Patriots -2 1/2

Why Bet On New York Giants (12-7 SU, 10-8-1 ATS)

The Giants could be sparked by the fact that they’re a 2.5-point underdog in Indianapolis, despite their win over the Patriots in New England in Week 9, so that is motivation (although to be fair, the line did move from an opening three points to 2.5). But if the Giants are really going to win this game, they’ll need the defensive line to continue their play over the last six or seven weeks. We know that it was four years ago, but which unit dominated the Super Bowl in which New York ruined New England’s chances for an unbeaten season? If the line is playing well, the defense plays well, as it did in the 24-20 win in Week 9 in which they forced four turnovers, three courtesy of Tom Brady. Osi Umenyiora could be the key; he has been healthy, which forces teams to double team either Umenyiora or Jason Pierre-Paul, and that could be dangerous.

This is also a massive chance for Eli Manning to step out of the shadow of older brother Peyton, who essentially built Lucas Oil Stadium as a Colt and whose injury has dominated the pre-Super Bowl talk, with another Super Bowl ring. He has been phenomenal down the stretch and his performance in San Francisco was quasi-legendary as Manning stood in the pocket with a beaten-up line and no running game and took hit after hit, but he made all the plays his teams needed him to make. He’ll need his young receivers not to get caught up in the moment, but Manning has to be the leader if they start to get worked up.

Why Bet On New England Patriots (15-3 SU, 10-7-1 ATS)

The Patriots aren’t saying much about the loss from four years ago, or even about the loss in Week 9, but you have to believe that it bothers Brady and head coach Bill Belichick that they’ve lost to Manning and New York coach Tom Coughlin in their last two meetings. Brady wasn’t great in Week 9 and even worse last week in a win over Baltimore in the AFC title game; some are even whispering that Brady may be a little overrated because of recent postseason failures, although they are probably wrong. The biggest worry is the ankle of tight end Rob Gronkowski, who may have replaced Wes Welker as Brady’s favorite target, especially in the end zone. Gronkowski probably won’t practice a lot this week, and that’s fine because we’re pretty sure he knows the playbook and what the Patriots like to do. Their NFL betting odds will only be as good as his health, so the priority will be getting “Gronk” to as close to 100% as possible.

 

But what about the New England defense? Yes, that was receiver Julian Edelman playing defensive back in the AFC title game against the Ravens, who decided not to take advantage of it until late in the game. That tells you the state of the New England defense, but to be honest they’ve been like that all year and they manage to get off the field when they need to, either via turnovers or a third-down stop. This unit knows its limitations and stays within the system. Even though we’re sure that Belichick isn’t happy with the amount of yards his team gives up, he can’t be mad about their competitive level; they never give up on a play (see Sterling Moore’s play against Lee Evans to save a touchdown against the Ravens).

How It Will Play Out

The NFL betting line for this game probably won’t move a lot from 2.5 points unless there is a major injury, so expect to see the Patriots favored at kickoff. There are so many storylines that this could be the biggest Super Bowl of the last decade, and both teams are very deserving of being in the big game in Indianapolis.

The Patriots have to slow down the New York defensive line to have a chance, and their secondary has to contain the Giants’ big-play trio of Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham. Look for a few new wrinkles in the New England defense and it’ll be up to the Giants to decipher what they’re seeing, and then react. There isn’t a big edge on either side, but you should go with the Patriots to barely cover the online betting spread in the Super Bowl.

Giants Patriots Betting Pick: New England Patriots

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