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Monday Night Football Picks - No passing game, no hope for Miami

Posted by D.J. Tomkins on 10/13/2009 3:43:10 PM

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NFL line bettingThe Jets vs Dolphins odds renew one of the older rivalries in football betting, but will they give us a close game? The Dolphins bounced back against the lowly Bills last week while the Jets suffered their first loss of the season in New Orleans. But can Miami score on the mighty Jets defense with an unproven quarterback at the helm?




Jets vs Dolphins Odds: Jets -2 (Total: 36.5)

  • WHAT: NFL betting
  • WHEN: Monday, October 12, 8:35 p.m. ET
  • WHERE: Land Shark Stadium in Miami, FL
  • KEY STAT: Dolphins are 0-3 against the spread and straight up as underdogs this season
  • PICK: Jets -2; Under 36.5



Jets vs Dolphins odds maker breakdown: The Storyline
Trying to make do without Chad Pennington, who is lost for the year with a ruptured shoulder capsule, the Dolphins want to show they’re still a competitive team. Last week, they looked the part, running the ball down Buffalo’s throat and pressuring Trent Edwards all day. The Jets are eager to put last week’s loss behind them and continue dominating the AFC.


Jets vs Dolphins odds maker breakdown: Offense
Neither team’s offense is a juggernaut, so finding the online sports betting edge here is more about determining the more complete offense. There’s no doubt the Dolphins are running the ball with gusto right now – they average an NFL-best 183.5 yards per game – but their passing game is non-existent, averaging a putrid 138.3 yards per contest. Maybe Chad Henne can get something going later in the season, but he won’t do anything against a Jets team that shut down the Patriots and Saints through the air.

Mark Sanchez could be shaky after the Saints’ pass rush took him down a notch in Week 4, but he at least has a competent group of pass catchers in Jerricho Cotchery, Dustin Keller and Leon Washington to help him out. The Jets run the ball well, averaging 130-plus yards per game, so their more balanced attack gives them a slight edge over Miami.

Betting Edge: Jets


Jets vs Dolphins odds maker breakdown: Defense
Is the Dolphins’ run defense for real? They’ve faced some strong offenses in Atlanta, San Diego and Indianapolis. Then again, it’s possible that those teams simply knew they could beat Miami through the air and abandoned the run, as the Dolphins rank near the bottom of the NFL in pass defense.

New York’s run defense has been adequate but its pass “D” has been exemplary. Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, Marques Colston – you name the top wideout and Jets corner Darrelle Revis has stopped him. Methinks he won’t have any trouble with Ted Ginn or Greg Camarillo. Since the Dolphins won’t pass, New York can stack the box and keep Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams in check on the ground.

Betting Edge: Jets


Jets vs Dolphins odds for total: 36.5
After the Jets held the Saints of all teams to one offensive touchdown, it’s tough to imagine this game going over the total. Miami won’t pass on New York and will have a tougher time running the ball than they’ve had all season; New York won’t do much on the ground against Miami. Points will be hard to come by in this sportsbook matchup.

Pick: Under 36.5


Jets vs Dolphins odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
The Jets may be missing Lito Sheppard from the secondary again but Revis’ emergence neutralizes that potential problem. Obviously, Pennington’s absence hurts Miami. While Henne has better ability to stretch the field, he’s still raw and his targets are unreliable.

Betting Edge: Jets


Jets vs Dolphins betting breakdown: Outlook and Pick
I don’t expect a rout victory for Gang Green on the road, especially since Sanchez’s confidence is likely rattled after he was responsible for two defensive touchdowns last week. However, the Jets “D” is no flash in the pan. It will exploit Miami’s brutal passing game and the Dolphins’ stellar running game will suffer too, as New York doesn’t have to respect Henne. Pick the Jets to win what should be a scrappy, low-scoring affair.

STAN’S PICK: Jets -2


When you’re done reading about the Jets vs Dolphins odds, check out the Betting Edge at betonline.com for sports betting analysis on every other NFL matchup.

D.J. Tomkins is one of betonline.com's NFL experts.


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