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Monday Night NFL Betting - San Diego's thin "D" can't slow undefeated Denver

Posted by Stan Simmons on 10/13/2009 3:35:03 PM
football line bettingBroncos vs Chargers odds are incredibly important for the AFC West race. Denver has surprisingly carved out an impressive head start with a five-game winning streak, while the Chargers are struggling at .500. Both had similar starts last season, when Denver started 5-1 and San Diego was 4-8. Should sportsbook fans expect another turnaround?

Broncos vs Chargers odds: Chargers -3.5 (Total: 44)

  • WHAT: NFL Week 6 odds
  • WHEN: Monday, October 13 at 8:30 p.m. ET
  • WHERE: Qualcomm Stadium
  • KEY STAT: Chargers are allowing 151 rushing yards per game
  • PICK: Broncos +3.5

Broncos vs Chargers odds maker breakdown: The Storyline
Anyone who doubts Denver is running out of ammunition. The Broncos are 5-0 after knocking off the Patriots 20-17 in overtime on Sunday. Denver has ridden an efficient offense and powerful defense to a big early lead in the AFC West.

The Chargers (2-2) are treading water. Supposedly one of the NFL's more talented teams, San Diego once again can't put it together. The defense is in shambles while the running game is nonexistent. Philip Rivers is carrying this team right now but he can't do it alone forever.

Broncos vs Chargers odds maker breakdown: Offense
San Diego has the big names, but Denver has the results. Averaging 139 yards per game, the Broncos' rushing attack is among the NFL's best. Knowshon Moreno (337 yards, one touchdown) is enjoying a fine rookie campaign. Quarterback Kyle Orton, considered a failure in Chicago, is playing very smart football (seven touchdowns, one pick).

Despite names like Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson on the roster, the Chargers haven't dominated like one might expect. That's largely the fault of Tomlinson and the ground game. San Diego is last in the NFL in rushing. Rivers has carried the team thus far but as the season progresses, teams will make more adjustments to stop him and force the Chargers to try and run.

Betting Edge: Denver

Broncos vs Chargers odds maker breakdown: Defense
Losing nose tackle Jamal Williams for the season has been a nightmare in San Diego. The 350-pound Pro Bowler was the key cog in stopping the run and, without him, the Chargers have been shredded on the ground (151 rushing yards per game). A poor pass rush limits the defense too, as San Diego has just six sacks on the year. Shawne Merriman, a former terror for opposing quarterbacks, has no sacks this season.

Denver's defense, on the other hand, has been nothing short of spectacular. Through five games the Broncos are allowing just 8.6 points per game, an almost unfathomable number for NFL odds bettors. The Denver "D" has been effective against both run and pass, and it could give Rivers fits - the team ranks second in sacks this year with 16.

Betting Edge: Broncos

Broncos vs Chargers odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
Correll Buckhalter was sharing carries very effectively sharing carries with Moreno before succumbing to an ankle injury, though Moreno was just fine on his own. Broncos corner Alphonso Smith is battling an ankle injury. On San Diego's side, the aforementioned Williams is done for the year. Center Nick Hardwick is out with an ankle injury.

Betting Edge: Broncos

Broncos vs Chargers odds maker: Totals (44)
Given how Denver's defense has played, the under is your safer bet. And while the Broncos could tear up San Diego on offense, their highest scoring output this season is 27 points. The offense churns along but doesn't explode.

Pick: UNDER 44

Broncos vs Chargers betting breakdown: Outlook and Pick
It's hard to believe the Broncos are undefeated and leading the AFC West while the Chargers struggle at .500, yet here we are. Unfortunately for San Diego fans, the trend will continue. Denver specializes in minimizing mistakes and pounding the football, something San Diego has failed to stop all season. And, against a premier "D" like Denver's, the Chargers' one-dimensional offense doesn't stand a chance. Bet on Denver.

STAN’S PICK: Broncos +3.5

Stay up-to-date with NFL betting and Broncos vs Chargers odds with the Betting Edge, your No. 1 source for online betting news and info.

Stan Simmons is one of's NFL experts.



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