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Monday Night NFL Picks - Dolphins will play better, but Colts will win

Posted by D.J. Tomkins on 10/20/2009 3:53:32 PM

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online football bettingThe Monday Night Football odds matchup is one of two AFC playoff teams who are already jockeying for position in the crowded conference. The Colts got off on the right foot with a win in their season opener, while the Dolphins were absolutely horrible in theirs. Look for them to bounce back but fall short as the Colts outlast the Dolphins on the road.

Monday Night Football odds: Colts -3

  • WHAT: NFL betting
  • WHEN: Monday, September 21st – 8:35 PM ET
  • WHERE: Land Shark Stadium – Miami, FL
  • PICK: Colts -3, Under 42.5

Monday Night Football odds maker breakdown: The Storyline
Online betting cappers know that for the Colts, this is just another game. They have been one of the steadiest teams in the NFL in the Peyton Manning era and no regular season situation fazes them.

As for the Dolphins, they were a big surprise last year but they struggled mightily in their opener. They had four turnovers against Atlanta after committing just 13 turnovers all of last year. They need this game to avoid the dreaded 0-2 hole.

Betting Edge: Dolphins

Monday Night Football odds maker breakdown: Offense
The Colts offense struggled in Week 1 and there are still some lingering concerns carried over from last year. The running game is still not a factor – even with Donald Brown around – and the Colts still lack a secondary wide receiver to alleviate some pressure off of Reggie Wayne. The Colts have to rely heavily on Wayne and Dallas Clark but the reality is that their offense doesn’t have the same bite that it used to, unless their running game can wake up.

The sportbook odds makers are curious to see how the Dolphins offensive line performs in Week 2. Without this offensive line – one that the franchise spent $155 million on in the last two years – the Dolphins won’t accomplish anything. Back at home, look for them to do a better job of protecting and a better job of running the ball.

Betting Edge: Colts

Monday Night Football odds maker breakdown: Defense
The Colts defense was impressive in the opener and they face a very similar offense in Week 2. One concern is the fact that they allowed Maurice Jones-Drew to rack up 123 total yards. The Colts defense did come up big in the fourth quarter but you can expect the Dolphins to execute a little better than the Jaguars.

The Dolphins defense played very well in Week 1, given the circumstances. They kept Michael Turner in check and kept the team in the game, especially given the fact that they were put in bad positions because of turnovers. This is an underrated unit and Manning will challenge their revamped secondary, but don’t be surprised if they are up to the task.

Betting Edge: Dolphins

Monday Night Football odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
The Colts will be without starting wideout Anthony Gonzalez in this contest. That’s a big loss for the Colts, who don’t have a lot of depth at the position to begin with.

Betting Edge: Dolphins

Monday Night Football odds for total: 42.5
Both offenses lack some punch and both defense are underrated. Don’t be surprised if this is a tight, low-scoring affair. The Colts defense has been more aggressive under Jim Caldwell and that worked out well for them in the opener. Look for the Dolphins defense to hold up its end of the bargain too in front of its home crowd.

Pick: Under

Monday Night Football betting breakdown: Outlook and Pick
NFL betting fans should expect a better effort out of the Dolphins, but the Colts are still the sharper team. They aren’t as dominant as they used to be, but they do enough to get the job done. Look for them to squeak one out and get the cover.

D.J.’S PICK: Colts -3

Want more sports betting analysis? Visit the Betting Edge daily. And for more on the Monday Night Football odds, check out our stats center.

D.J. Tomkins is one of's NFL experts.



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