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Patriots Broncos Betting – Denver Streak Ends, But They’ll Push Pats To The Brink

Posted by Stan Simmons on 12/15/2011 2:47:04 PM
patriots broncos betting

Sports betting players are jumping wildly on the Denver bandwagon as they continue to win in improbable fashion, but many were pointing towards this game against New England as the litmus test to see how real they are. The Broncos may not have enough to pull out the win, but they’re a great ATS bet to make in Week 15.

What: NFL Betting
When: Sunday, December 18th, 4:15 PM ET
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Pick: Denver Broncos +6.5

Why Bet On New England Patriots (10-3 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)

Tom Brady had another brilliant day in a 34-27 win at Washington, going 22-of-37 for 357 yards and three touchdowns, although he did throw a pick, and his favorite target was Rob Gronkowski. The youngster is emerging as the league’s best tight end and he caught six passes for 160 yards and two scores; he may be a NFL betting favorite to be a first-round pick in next year’s fantasy drafts. No Patriot had more than 41 yards on the ground (Danny Woodhead, on eight carries), but when Brady is operating the way he is, a running game doesn’t matter. The Patriots would like to do better in the red zone, where they were 1-of-4 and that’s where the lack of a running game really hurts but again, New England can strike from anywhere on the field. The defense did what they usually do: give up a ton of yards (463), but they also stopped the Redskins on three of five red-zone chances and they forced two turnovers, one of which was a fumble recovered in the end zone by Vince Wilfork.

Wes Welker (knee) has been limited in practice, but that has been ongoing and should be in the lineup. Fellow receiver Deion Branch (groin) is a bigger worry for the Patriots, who have scored at least 31 points in every game during this five-game winning streak. The Patriots are 13th in the NFL against the run, but that is partially because they are dead last against the pass; it’ll be interesting to see what kind of schemes head coach Bill Belichick and his staff cook up against the Denver option attack.

Why Bet On Denver Broncos (8-5 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)

It’s a recurring theme among NFL betting players and fans alike, and even the experts and players themselves don’t know what to say at this point. Tim Tebow will never be mistaken for Tom Brady, but the team rallies around him and they keep winning games they shouldn’t be winning. This time, the Broncos scored 10 points in the final two minutes to force overtime, and then Matt Prater kicked his second 50-yard plus field goal to defeat Chicago 13-10. Tebow was 21-of-40 for 236 yards, a touchdown and a pick, but he was terrible for the first three quarters and then turned it on in the final 15 minutes and overtime. He ran for a team-high 49 yards as the Bears did a good job of holding Denver’s ground game to 124 yards, but Tebow’s arm was the difference down the stretch. The defense stopped the Bears on 13 of 15 third-down opportunities and even though Marion Barber ran for 108 yards, the Broncos forced him out of bounds late in regulation to stop the clock (and get the ball back), and then they forced a fumble in overtime (to get the ball back).

Receiver Eddie Royal (concussion) is doubtful, while safety Brian Dawkins (neck) is expected to play and the Broncos need his experience in the lineup against Gronkowski, although he’ll get help. You can’t count the Broncos out of any game, no matter what the score is as Tebow has a knack of leading the team in crunch time and the defense has really stepped up to give the offense some support. Von Miller, who has to be the favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year, has to get some pressure on Brady and take him out of his comfort zone if the Broncos are going to extend their winning streak to seven.

How It Will Play Out

NFL betting odds have the Patriots as a 6.5-point favorite on the road in Denver, and they are 2-3 SU and ATS in their last five meetings with the Broncos since 2003 with the last three meetings falling under the posted total. On the road, the Patriots are 4-2-1 ATS, while the Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS at home.

At this point, it’s tough to bet against the Broncos and even though we think they’ll lose outright, 6.5 points is too many points to lay with the Patriots and it’s no knock against them: it’s just that this Denver run has been extraordinary. New England has probably heard the talk about Tebow and this team usually comes through in statement games, but the Broncos are going to push them and keep this game to a field goal. Take the Denver Broncos against the online betting spread in this game.

Patriots Broncos Betting Pick: Denver Broncos

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