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Patriots vs Broncos Odds - Belichick teaches McDaniels a lesson in Denver

Posted by Stan Simmons on 10/5/2009 1:29:23 PM
NFL linesOnline betting players didn’t see Denver coach Josh McDaniels winning his first four games to start the NFL season, but now the rookie will face his mentor, Bill Belichick, when the Broncos host New England this week. In what should be a defensive showdown, take Belichick to lead his team into Mile High and come out with a victory.

Patriots vs Broncos Odds: Patriots -3 (Total: 42)

  • WHAT: NFL Week 5 betting
  • WHEN: Sunday, October 11, 4:15 PM ET
  • WHERE: Invesco Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
  • KEY STAT: Denver has won six of their last 10 meetings with New England
  • PICK: Patriots -3 (UNDER 42)

Patriots vs Broncos odds maker breakdown: The Storyline
One of these teams has opened the season 4-0. No one would have batted an eye if you guessed the Patriots (3-1), but it’s the surprising Broncos (4-0) who have sprinted out of the gate. Last week’s win over the Cowboys make sportsbook players take Denver seriously, while New England have yet to play their best football. And there’s a little matchup to watch on the sidelines: Denver rookie coach Josh McDaniels goes up against New England’s Bill Belichick, who was the only coach McDaniels ever had until he left before this season.

Patriots vs Broncos odds maker breakdown: Offense
Tom Brady used nine different receivers in a 27-21 win over Baltimore, but the big-play aspect that made the Patriots so feared before Brady’s knee injury hasn’t reared its head yet. The Patriots were happy to nickel-and-dime their way down the field against the Ravens, holding the ball for almost 35 minutes.

McDaniels has done a brilliant job putting Kyle Orton in a position to make plays, and more importantly, not make mistakes. Orton was 20-of-29 for 243 yards and two scores in a 17-10 win over the Cowboys, and they also have a very solid ground game as Knowshon Moreno is getting more time in the Denver backfield.

Betting Edge: Draw

Patriots vs Broncos odds maker breakdown: Defense
Since losing linebacker Jerod Mayo, the Patriots have buckled down on defense and they forced a pair of turnovers out of the Ravens. Belichick doesn’t focus on players, he focuses on the system, and players trust him. Safety Brandon Meriweather had a big game against the Ravens with nine tackles.

If Denver’s offense is surprising, their defensive play is downright astounding. The Broncos have allowed 6.5 points per game, and they’re second in points allowed. Denver sacked Dallas’ Tony Romo five times, while Champ Bailey showed he’s still one of the top corners in the league with eight tackles and four passes defended, including an end-zone attempt at the end of the game.

Betting Edge: Broncos

Patriots vs Broncos odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
Mayo (knee) is getting closer to returning to the lineup, and the versatile linebacker would be a great addition to the New England defense with his mix of speed and power.

Correll Buckhalter (ankle) left the Dallas game on crutches, which means more carries for Moreno.

Betting Edge: Patriots

Patriots vs Broncos odds maker: Totals
Three of the last six meetings between these two have gone under the posted total, and this is looking like it’ll also go under. McDaniels essentially created the New England offense and knows it inside and out. With the way these defenses are playing right now, it could be a long day if you’re looking expecting points.

Pick: UNDER 42

Patriots vs Broncos betting breakdown: Outlook and Pick
Are the Broncos for real? McDaniels is obviously using Belichick’s formula to build Denver, and it must feel good to quiet some of his critics after his wild offseason start. The Dallas win gives them some confidence, but let’s not anoint the Broncos just yet. This will be their biggest test to date, and the Patriots have been improving, they just have to put it together. The Patriots are also 7-3 in their last 10 games on the road, and after losing in New York a couple of weeks ago, they’ll be eager to win another away from home. Give the edge to the teacher (Belichick) over the student (McDaniels).

STAN’S PICK: Patriots -3

For more sports betting tips and picks as we head towards the Super Bowl, visit our renowned sportsbook at For more on the Patriots vs Broncos matchup, check out our stats section.

Stan Simmons is one of's NFL experts.



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