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Patriots vs Colts Odds - Brady will burn Indy's rookie corners

Posted by Stan Simmons on 5/3/2012 10:00:58 AM
NFL line bettingPatriots vs Colts odds have almost become an institution among sports betting fans over the last decade. The rivalry continues Sunday night when Tom Brady leads New England into Indianapolis to face the undefeated Colts. Like most years when they meet, this could be a preview of the AFC Championship game.

Patriots vs Colts odds: Colts -3 (Total 50.5)

  • WHAT: NFL odds
  • WHEN: Sunday, Nov. 15 at 8:20 p.m. ET
  • WHERE: Lucas Oil Stadium
  • KEY STAT: Indy will start two rookie cornerbacks
  • PICK: Patriots +3

Patriots vs Colts odds maker breakdown: The Storyline
The 8-0 Colts are one of two undefeated teams remaining in the NFL, with the Saints being the other. It hasn't always been easy, though, with Indy grinding out wins over San Francisco and Houston over the last two weeks. Regardless, good teams find ways to win - and there's no doubt at this point Indy is a good team, if not a great one.

New England has strung together three straight wins to improve to 6-2, including last week's hard-fought 27-17 win over the Dolphins. The victory padded the Patriots' lead in the AFC East while keeping them in the hunt for a first-round bye in the playoffs.

This is unquestionably the best game of all the Week 10 NFL matchups.

Patriots vs Colts odds maker breakdown: Offense
Both offenses are quite similar; they utilize great quarterback play and brilliant passing games while the running attack lags behind. The Patriots rank third in the NFL in points scored, the Colts tied for fifth. Tom Brady has surpassed 300 yards passing in each of his last three starts, while tossing 10 touchdowns to three interceptions. Peyton Manning has thrown for at least 300 yards in seven of his eight games this season. Both quarterbacks have 16 touchdowns and five interceptions this season.

Neither offense relies much on the run. A committee attack in New England is producing 114 yards per outing, while the colts rank 29th in the NFL at 85 rushing yards per game. There's no doubt that on Sunday night, it will be all about the quarterbacks.

Betting Edge: Even

Patriots vs Colts odds maker breakdown: Defense
The Colts defense has been very impressive all season; they've allowed the fewest points per game in the league this year. The "D" has been especially good the last two weeks, when the Colts offense managed an uncharacteristic 19 points per game. Indy is adept at stopping the run but excellent against the pass, largely because of a great pass rush - the Colts rank fourth in the NFL with 22 sacks this season.

The Patriots are nearly as good statistically, ranking third in points allowed per game. The pass defense has been spectacular, as opposing quarterbacks are managing just 179 yards per game against the Pats. They can't boast the same pass rushing effectiveness, however, with 15 sacks on the year.

Betting Edge: Colts

Patriots vs Colts odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
Indy receiver Austin Collie injured his neck last Sunday and his status will be questionable this week, while Colts rookie running back Donald Brown could return from a shoulder injury. The secondary is especially banged up; nickel back marlin Jackson is out for the year with an ACL tear, while Kelvin Hayden is out for three or four weeks due to a knee injury.

Center Dan Koppen left Sunday's game with a knee injury, leaving his availability this week unknown. Defensive lineman Ty Warren is trying to round into shape after an ankle injury slowed him down.

Betting Edge: Patriots

Patriots vs Colts odds for total: 50.5
It's tempting to take the over immediately, but you have to appreciate how well each defense has played this season. That said, Brady and Manning won't be stopped - they shine in games like this. Despite a lack of running game, both the Colts and Pats should score in the high 20s if not the 30s, pushing the total over.

Pick: OVER 50.5

Patriots vs Colts betting breakdown: Outlook and Pick
This is a very evenly matched game and, quite fairly, the focus will be on the quarterbacks. Brady gets a big advantage in this one, however - the Colts secondary is extremely banged up. Rookies Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey will start at corner and, while they held their own against Houston, Brady and receiver Randy Moss are obviously licking their jobs. The Colts' winning streak is about to end.

STAN'S PICK: Patriots +3

Get in-depth analysis and free picks on Patriots vs Colts odds - and every other NFL game - visit Betting Edge at BetOnline daily.

Stan Simmons is one of's NFL experts.



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