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Patriots vs Dolphins Betting Odds - Brady, Pats will rebound from brutal Saints loss

Posted by Stan Simmons on 12/2/2009 3:08:44 PM

NFL Odds: Pick Patriots -5


NFL betting linesPatriots vs Dolphins odds could go a long way to determining the AFC East. A Miami loss will pretty much end the race in New England's favor, but a win would leave the Dolphins just one game back. They have a lot of work ahead; the Patriots won this matchup 27-17 in Week 9. So who should online sports betting fans pick?


Patriots vs Dolphins betting odds: Patriots -5 (TOTAL: 46.5)
WHAT: NFL betting
WHEN: Sunday, December 6 at 1:00 p.m. ET
WHERE: Land Shark Stadium
KEY STAT: Brady threw for 332 yards against Miami in Week 9


Patriots vs Dolphins betting odds maker breakdown: The Storyline
The Patriots lost 38-17 to the Saints last week, sending a clear message to the rest of the league: New England, for now, does not belong in the league's elite. New Orleans shut down the Pats, who have lost two in a row, including a 1-4 record on the road.

The Dolphins suffered a brutal 31-14 loss to the Bills. Miami had won five of seven heading into Buffalo and a win would have left it just a game behind New England in the AFC East. That makes this game incredibly important for both teams.

Patriots vs Dolphins betting odds maker breakdown: Offense
Tom Brady struggled to find open receivers against New Orleans, which opted to blitz heavily and cover safety valve Wes Welker very closely. Big-play threat Randy Moss was held to just three catches. The Pats had been humming on offense before facing the Saints and should return to normal this week.

Miami managed only 14 points last week despite 115 rushing yards from Ricky Williams. Their quarterback problems are growing more concerning every week; Chad Henne was 17/31 for 175 yards and three interceptions against Buffalo. Miami can run the football but Dan Marino is nowhere to be seen.

Betting Edge: Patriots

Patriots vs Dolphins betting odds maker breakdown: Defense
While New England's offense shoulders some of the blame for the Saints loss, the "D" has been miserable in the Pats' last two losses, allowing 73 points to Indy and New Orleans. The Patriots rank 10th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, but Drew Brees had his way with 371 yards and five scores. He was only sacked once.

Allowing 31 points to the floundering Bills is about as low as it gets, though Miami's defense didn't get much help from its turnover-prone offense. The Dolphins rank 23rd in the NFL in passing yards allowed, so Brady and co. should be able to get things going.

Betting Edge: Patriots

Patriots vs Dolphins betting odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
New England has some scrapes but, generally speaking, is pretty healthy. Miami's offensive line could be without center Jake Grove, which would be costly. Running back Ronnie Brown is done for the year.

Betting Edge: Patriots

Patriots vs Dolphins betting odds for total: 46.5
Miami and New England combined for 44 points in their Week 9 meeting. Since then, Ronnie Brown has succumbed to injury and Henne's play has regressed. That means Bill Belichick can concentrate New England's efforts on Ricky Williams. With Miami struggling to score, take the UNDER at your online sportsbook.

Pick: UNDER 46.5

Patriots vs Dolphins betting breakdown: Outlook and Pick
Brady racked up 332 yards against Miami in Week 9's 27-17 victory, and he'll be especially motivated this week after getting shoved around in New Orleans. Look for Randy Moss to duplicate his efforts last time around (147 yards, touchdown) and the Patriots to lock down a crucial blowout over their AFC East rivals.

STAN'S PICK: Patriots -5


Get up-to-date analysis and picks on Week 13 NFL odds, including Patriots vs Dolphins odds, in the Betting Edge football section.

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