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Patriots Lions Betting – Patriots Are Ripe For Upset In Detroit

Posted by Stan Simmons on 11/22/2010 2:50:37 PM

Sports betting players love Thanksgiving as they can have some football action to go with their turkey and stuffing, and this year’s tripleheader starts off in Detroit, where the Detroit Lions will host the New England Patriots. The Patriots have been through a lot in the last couple of weeks, and that will make a prime target for a Detroit team that is better than their record.

  • What: NFL betting
  • When: Thursday, November 25th, 12:30 PM ET
  • Where: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
  • Pick: Detroit Lions +7

What’s On The Line

The Patriots (8-2) survived another epic battle with the Indianapolis Colts holding on for a 31-28 victory when Peyton Manning bailed them out with a horrible throw late in the game. The Lions (2-8) lost their third game in a row, falling 35-19 at Dallas in a game they probably should have won if not for a few mistakes. This is the definition of a trap game for New England, who are coming off emotional wins over the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis, while the Lions are back home, where they are pretty good.

Offensive Matchups: Patriots Lions Betting

Tom Brady was 19-of-25 for 186 yards and two touchdowns, and while his numbers weren’t as good as Manning, he didn’t turn the ball over, while Manning did three times. The Patriots are also getting their running game back as they ran for 168 yards on the Colts, although they (and the offense as a whole) stumbled in the second half. The ground attack has been much better since guard Logan Mankins came back from a contract dispute, and that may not be good news for a Detroit defense that is awful against the run. The running game may have to be good: Brady has a 74.9 rating with no touchdowns and two picks in three games against Detroit.

Shaun Hill went 32-of-47 for 289 yards, a pair of touchdowns and a pick for the Lions, which was one of two turnovers on Sunday. The Detroit offense was actually decent, outgaining the Cowboys 338-265, and they converted 10 of their 18 third-down opportunities, but a couple of mistakes on offense and a terrible defense let them down. It’s all about the pass in Detroit as the Lions are 31st in the league on the ground, as rookie Jahvid Best has been battling a toe injury all season, Kevin Smith is out for the year, and that leaves Maurice Morris, who had 10 rushes for 31 yards for the Lions. Surprisingly, Detroit’s offense is only two spots below New England, sitting in 19th place.

Betting Edge: Draw

Defensive Matchups: Patriots Lions Betting

The Patriots’ defense was doing fine until the fourth quarter, when Manning went into Manning mode, and they were pretty fortunate that he decided to throw a bad pass or else the game was going to overtime, or worse. Even though the three forced turnovers were good, the Patriots gave up 467 yards and they failed to get to Manning, although you can’t hold that against them because no one gets to Manning often. The Patriots are now 30th in the league defensively, and you can tell they have a lot of young players because for the second week in a row, New England’s defense took their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter, and it will come back to bite them soon.

The Lions come in 19th defensively as well, and they did a surprisingly good job against the Dallas Cowboys’ aerial attack, even though Jon Kitna threw three touchdowns on them. Tackle Ndamokung Suh had eight tackles and a half-sack, and he picked up a personal-foul penalty when he grabbed Marion Barber by the hair on a tackle. We can give the Defensive Rookie of the Year award to Suh now: this guy is going to be a monster for years to come, and gives Detroit a great foundation. As we said, though, the Lions are pretty bad against the run, coming in 26th, and the next mission should be to upgrade the linebacking unit.

Betting Edge: Lions

Notable Injuries: Patriots Lions Betting

Running back Fred Taylor (toe), safety Jarrad Page (calf), cornerback Jonathan Wilhite (hip) and guard Stephen Neal (shoulder) all missed the Indianapolis game and will have to be watched closely during this short week for the Patriots.

Tight end Tony Scheffler (ribs) left the Dallas game in the first half, while end Cliff Avril (quadriceps) missed his second game in a row for the Lions.

Betting Edge: Lions

Outlook and Pick: Patriots Lions Betting

NFL betting odds will likely favor the Patriots in Detroit, where they are 2-1 both SU and ATS in three trips to the Motor City from 1994 to 2002. However, the Lions are 4-0 ATS and we’re willing to go with them for the upset this week at home. The Patriots have just been through two very tough games against AFC rivals, and they were less than stellar in the fourth quarter of both games. The Lions are generally pretty good at home, and Hill is a better quarterback than a lot of people give him credit for. The Patriots had trouble keeping up with Indianapolis’ tight ends, which means Detroit’s Brandon Pettigrew could have a big game, and who is going to cover Calvin Johnson (also known as Megatron)? If the Lions can get to Brady, there will be an upset in Detroit. Take them in your online betting book.

Stan’s Pick: Detroit Lions


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