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Patriots vs Saints Betting Odds - Pats can't handle an elite offense like New Orleans

Posted by D.J. Tomkins on 11/23/2009 2:34:12 PM
NFL linesThe Patriots vs Saints odds could be the latest NFL betting matchup to garner “Game of the Year” consideration. The Saints remain predictably undefeated after some cupcake matchups helped them stretch their record to 10-0. The Patriots are picking up serious momentum; their offense has steamrolled ever since their enormous blowout win over Tennessee in Week 6. Now seems as good a time as ever to pose the “unstoppable force vs immovable object” question, doesn’t it?

Patriots vs Saints betting Odds: Saints -3 (Total: 55.5)
WHAT: NFL betting
WHEN: Monday, November 30, 8:35 p.m. ET
WHERE: Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans, LA
KEY STAT: Patriots have only faced one of the NFL’s top 12 offenses this season
PICK: Saints -3

Patriots vs Saints betting odds maker breakdown: The Storyline
We know both of these teams are good – but the Monday nighter will take us one step closer to knowing just how good. The Pats pounded on the Jets, Dolphins and Titans but couldn’t hold Indy down, so they want to beat the Saints and show sportsbook bettors that they’re legit Super Bowl contenders. The Saints haven’t faced a tough opponent in a few weeks, so beating New England would prove that they’re still the Super Bowl frontrunner.

Patriots vs Saints betting odds maker breakdown: Offense
We’re comparing one A+ group to another here, as the Pats and Saints lead their respective conferences in scoring and total yardage. Tom Brady’s rusty return from last year’s knee injury is long, long gone. He’s clicking with Randy Moss and Wes Welker like it’s 2007 again. Moss torches teams without elite shutdown corners while Welker does the damage against anyone who bottles up Moss, as he did with his 15-catch, 192-yard performance against the Jets last week. The Pats aren’t dynamic running the football but they haven’t given up on Laurence Maroney and he’s rewarded them with some decent efforts of late.

The Saints are ultimately peerless offensively. Drew Brees has a plethora of dangerous targets at his disposal. If Marques Colston goes cold, it’s Robert Meachem lighting up the scoreboard. The next week, it’s Colston again; then it’s Jeremy Shockey. There’s no way a defense can cover everyone. New Orleans’ running game has been the biggest difference maker this season, as Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell (sorry, Reggie Bush) keep defenses honest.

Because the Saints have the better ground attack and equally powerful passing game, they get the offensive online betting edge.

Betting Edge: Saints

Patriots vs Saints betting odds maker breakdown: Defense
The Pats and Saints are known for their offense but have done plenty of damage defensively this season too. New England struggles to pressure the quarterback at times but it doesn’t allow much yardage and, more importantly, keeps points off the board. The question for New England, however, is whether or not it can handle an elite defense. Sure, the Pats handled the Titans (Kerry Collins), Bucs (rookie quarterback) and Jets (rookie quarterback), but they simply couldn’t stop Peyton Manning when it counted in Week 10. How confident can we feel about their chances against New Orleans?

The Saints are all about big plays. Their pass “D” isn’t perfect but it’s very good and relies on boatloads of turnovers – especially through roaming safety Darren Sharper. Against Tom Brady and the Pats’ O-line, things won’t come as easy for the Saints, but their run “D” should be solid. Sedrick Ellis is expected to rejoin the lineup after missing several weeks to injury and will fill a major void in the run-stopping game.

Because the Saints have made some key stops against powerful offenses – the Falcons and Giants come to mind – they’re the more proven unit. I won’t believe in the Pats’ “D” fully until it stops someone worthwhile.

Betting Edge: Saints

Patriots vs Saints betting odds for total: 55.5
Everyone wants and expects a shootout and the huge projected total reflects that. While both teams play solid defense, I do expect the game to top the total. The reason: Tom Brady and Drew Brees are just too good. It seems no one can stop either of these offenses, so we should expect fireworks from both sides.

Pick: Over 55.5

Patriots vs Saints betting odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
The Pats don’t have any new major injuries to report and the Saints expect Ellis and Jabari Greer back for Week 12, so injuries don’t look like they’ll play a factor in this contest. It’s worth checking injury reports throughout the week, however, as the Saints would suffer if Ellis and/or Greer sit out.

Betting Edge: Draw

Patriots vs Saints betting breakdown: Outlook and Pick
It’s easy to get wrapped up in the Tom Brady Factor. I let it happen to me at first, feeling like Brady and the Patriots will “find a way to win” on the road, defy the odds and so on. But the Colts game told us something: that other good teams aren’t afraid of the Pats and can move the ball on them. The Saints beat the Eagles, Giants and Falcons already this year so it’s not like the Pats will come out of nowhere. Some bettors will worry New Orleans’ recent games versus Tampa and St. Louis have them soft entering Week 12. But it’s not exactly hard to get up for a Monday nighter at home to the Patriots, is it? Go with the Saints.

D.J.’S PICK: Saints -3

Check all week for updated Patriots vs Saints betting odds and bookmark the Betting Edge for tips from all our sports betting experts every day.



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