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Ravens vs Patriots Odds - Baltimore catches New England at the perfect time

Posted by Stan Simmons on 9/28/2009 1:37:27 PM
NFL oddsThe Ravens vs Patriots odds feature two teams with a fair amount to prove in Week 4. Tom Brady’s Patriots are 2-1 but they aren’t the powerhouses they were expected to be thus far. After grinding out an ugly win last week, they’ll try to take the unbeaten Ravens down a notch while re-establishing their own NFL betting contender status.

Ravens vs Patriots Odds: Patriots -2 (Total: 44)

  • WHAT: NFL betting
  • WHEN: Sunday, October 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
  • WHERE: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA
  • KEY STAT: Baltimore is allowing an NFL-low 51 rushing yards per game this season
  • PICK: Ravens +2

Ravens vs Patriots odds maker breakdown: The Storyline
The Patriots won last week but it wasn’t pretty. Tom Brady and the Pats offense were downright bad in the first half and Brady was visibly frustrated. Now, against the mighty Baltimore “D,” he and the Pats have a ton to prove. Can they still be an elite team? Meanwhile, the Ravens have been absolutely dominant but their victims include lowly Kansas City and Cleveland. They’re anxious to prove they’re the real deal and win in New England would do that.

Ravens vs Patriots odds maker breakdown: Offense
This is a tougher category to decide than we ever would’ve imagined before the season started. Joe Flacco is averaging 279.7 passing yards and two touchdowns per game after three weeks; he’s had time to uncork his mammoth deep ball and he’s had lots of support from Baltimore’s dynamic running game. On paper, the Patriots should be the superior offensive team; Tom Brady is a future Hall-of-Famer and he has fantastic targets in Randy Moss and Wes Welker. However, sportsbook sharps should realize that Brady’s throwing mechanics are off and Welker is battling knee troubles. It’s hard to ever doubt the Patriots offense but the Ravens’ cohesive group is at least on par with theirs right now.

Betting Edge: Draw

Ravens vs Patriots odds maker breakdown: Defense
Like Baltimore’s offense, New England’s defense has been a pleasant surprise this season – and without Jerod Mayo at linebacker. The Pats did what no one else had done through two weeks and shut down Matt Ryan and the Falcons; they’ve gotten solid efforts from Adalius Thomas and veteran acquisition Leigh Bodden.

Can we bet against Baltimore’s defense? It scuffled somewhat against Kansas City but bottled up the San Diego running game and stomped on the Browns. However, Phil Rivers torched the Ravens for 474 passing yards in Week 2 so Tom Brady could have a sneaky-good day, especially if Welker returns.

The key is the run defense. Baltimore has allowed an NFL-low 51 rushing yards per game. Fred Taylor and the Pats had a good day on the ground against the Falcons but struggled against Buffalo (73 yards as a team) and the Jets (83 yards). Brady won’t get much support from the running game.

Betting Edge: Ravens

Ravens vs Patriots odds for total: 44
It feels natural to picture every Baltimore Raven game as a brutal, smashmouth war in the mud that ends 9-7 on a last-second field goal. The truth, though, is that Baltimore’s team personality is changing; it doesn’t mind playing in a shootout anymore. The Ravens combined for 62 and 57 points with their opponents in weeks 1 and 2. Tom Brady and the Patriots are hungry to bust out offensively. Those factors should combine to push this online sports betting matchup over the total of 44.

Pick: Over 44

Ravens vs Patriots odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
Jerod Mayo remains sidelined with an MCL sprain, so the Pats will almost certainly play another game without their young tackling machine. Wes Welker should return from his knee injury this week but that’s not a guaranteed and he could be ineffective if he can’t push off on the knee properly. Some Baltimore defenders are nicked up, such as Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs, but they both played in Week 3.

Betting Edge: Ravens

Ravens vs Patriots betting breakdown: Outlook and Pick
Bettors have a tough decision on Sunday, as the Ravens are riding two very easy wins and it never feels right betting against the Patriots at home. However, the Ravens are sharper, healthier and showing better team chemistry right now. Look for them to shock the Patriots and raise many question marks about whether or not Bill Belichick’s dynasty is dying.

STAN’S PICK: Ravens +2

Keep checking the Ravens vs Patriots odds as we update them all week. Also, keep reading the Betting Edge at for first-class sports betting analysis from our team of experts.

Stan Simmons is one of's NFL experts.



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