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Saints vs Buccaneers Betting Odds - Banged-up Saints defense will prevent them from covering against Bucs

Posted by D.J. Tomkins on 11/20/2009 1:53:46 PM
NFL football linesOnline betting players may be tempted to stay away from New Orleans this week when they head to Tampa Bay to face an improving Bucs team, and they face a number of injuries which may keep some key players out ahead of next week’s game against New England. The Saints still have enough to beat the Bucs, but covering the spread won’t be easy with their injuries.

Saints vs Buccaneers odds: Saints -11 (Total: 50.5)
WHAT: NFL odds
WHEN: Sunday, November 22, 1:00 PM ET
WHERE: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
KEY STAT: New Orleans is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite of eight or more points
PICK: Bucs +11; OVER 50.5

Saints vs Buccaneers odds maker breakdown: The Storyline
New Orleans (9-0) is one of two teams, along with Indianapolis, that are still undefeated so far this year, but they had to sneak out a tough 28-23 win at St. Louis last week. The Bucs (1-8) had their own close call, falling 25-23 at Miami in a battle of Florida teams. The rest of this season is essentially a test run for the Bucs, who have given the starting quarterback job to rookie Josh Freeman, while the Saints try to remain unbeaten.

Betting Edge: Saints

Saints vs Buccaneers odds maker breakdown: Offense
It’s like choose your own adventure against the Saints’ offense. Try and stop Drew Brees? The Saints are fourth in the league in passing? What about the running game? Fifth. Points scored? First. However, they were uncharacteristically sloppy against the Rams with three turnovers, including a pair of picks by Brees. Still, they ran for 203 yards.

The Bucs are 28th in offense, and Freeman was 16-of-28 for 196 yards, a touchdown and a pick, and he also added 36 yards on the ground. Tampa Bay will have to get production out of running back “Cadillac” Williams to keep the Saints off of Freeman, because outside of tight end Kellen Winslow, who had seven catches for 102 yards last week, the Bucs’ receiving corps is awful.

Betting Edge: Saints

Saints vs Buccaneers odds maker breakdown: Defense
The Saints’ improved defense has been the key to their sportsbook odds, but they gave up 434 yards against the Rams, who aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut. New Orleans has fallen to 21st in total defense, including 20th against the run, and they’ll have to work on that before they head into the postseason.

The Bucs are 29th in defense, and it’s against the run that they have troubles, as they’re 31st in the NFL. They gave up 199 yards on the ground against the Dolphins, so what will happen when they face a team like the Saints?

Betting Edge: Saints

Saints vs Buccaneers odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
Four players didn’t practice this week for New Orleans: running back Reggie Bush (knee), who has been playing great lately, linebacker Tracy Porter (knee), cornerback Jabari Greer (groin), and receiver Lance Moore (ankle). All four are questionable. There’s also defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis (knee) and safety Darren Sharper (knee) who are questionable.

Receiver Antonio Bryant (knee), cornerback Aqib Talib (hamstring), Williams (knee) and Winslow (knee) are all probable for the Bucs.

Betting Edge: Bucs

Saints vs Buccaneers odds for total: 50.5
Six of the last seven meetings between these two have gone over the posted total, and this could be another one. The Saints’ defense is banged up, and Tampa Bay’s is, well, terrible.

Pick: OVER 50.5

Saints vs Buccaneers betting breakdown: Outlook and Pick
The Saints have won only two of their last five against the Bucs, who are looking to repeat last year’s 23-20 win at home over New Orleans. That’s two straight years that the Saints have lost in Tampa Bay, and while they may win this week, they have trouble covering large spreads: the Saints are 2-8 in their last 10 in games where they are favored by eight points or more. The Saints haven’t covered in their last three games, and they could be looking ahead to next weekend’s showdown with New England as well. The Bucs don’t have the talent to win, but they’ve been improving and will at least keep it close.

DJ’S PICK: Bucs +11

For more sports betting tips and picks on the road to the Super Bowl in Miami, bookmark DJ in the Betting Edge at For more on the Saints vs Buccaneers matchup, check out our stats section.



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