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Saints Packers Betting Tips – Saints And Packers Meet Under Unexpected Circumstances

Posted by Tony Bryant on 9/27/2012 6:44:08 PM

The New Orleans Saints did not figure to be 0-3 heading into this week-four showdown with the Green Bay Packers, a team that certainly did not count on being 1-2 at the same time.

New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers – Sunday, September 30   
Sport betting line: Green Bay -9

Why New Orleans Will Win

The football betting community should not completely dismiss the Saints' chances here. The Saints know they can pass the ball against the Green Bay Packers, even in Lambeau Field, Last year, in the 2011 season opener, the Saints engaged the Packers in a weapons-grade shootout, a festival of fireworks and completed passes involving two of the three best quarterbacks in the league.

New England's Tom Brady is the only quarterback who can match the two signal callers in this game in terms of present-day quality (with Peyton Manning needing to show that he can regain consistency in a post-injury world before he is brought back to the top tier of active NFL quarterbacks). Alongside Green Bay gunslinger Aaron Rodgers, New Orleans signal caller Drew Brees stands at the top of his profession.

New Orleans' defense was eviscerated by Green Bay and Rodgers in that 2011 opener, but the fact that the Saints lost by only one possession – remaining competitive for the full 60 minutes – showed just how well Brees performed. Green Bay's secondary is the Achilles Heel of the Packers' defense, which means that this is a workable matchup for the Saints, even on the road in Wisconsin. Brees will find the open man in the Packers' back line of defense. He will be able to scan the field and pick his preferences, which is exactly what the Saints' coaching staff is hoping for. Green Bay's defense might be better than it was in past seasons, but the Packers will have to prove that in this contest, and it's too early to give Green Bay that much credit.

Why Green Bay Will Win

The Packers' first three results this season makes Green Bay's trio of regular season contests feel like a set of poker games. The wild irregularity of this team should, however, come to an end in week four. The Packers should get it right.

The Packers should win because the Saints' defense is worse than their own defense. New Orleans allowed over 30 points to both Washington and Carolina this season. Washington beat the Saints with a rookie quarterback – an immensely talented one, but a rookie nonetheless – while Carolina got shut down by its other two opponents this season, scoring just 10 points against Tampa Bay in week one and only seven points against the New York Giants on Sept. 20. There's something really wrong with the Saints' defense, and the reasons are manifold.

First, former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is no longer with the team. New coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is struggling to find his groove; it could very well be a situation in which New Orleans' defense doesn't find itself until the middle of the season. This should be a good defense; it might become one before the season ends, but it does appear likely that the Saints' evolution on defense will be a gradual long-term process instead of a short journey to immediate productivity and results.

Second, linebacker Jonathan Vilma is trying to fight his way back to playing shape after dealing with an injury (and missing games) for the first few weeks of the season. The Saints have been tossed about on a psychological level due to all the roster and coaching transitions unleashed by the BountyGate scandal and its aftereffects, but they have also been physically limited. Vilma is just one reason why the Saints' defenders are not yet at a point where their instincts and in-game reactions are going to be sharp. This will leave New Orleans vulnerable to Aaron Rodgers and the rest of Green Bay's passing attack.

Who Will Win

New Orleans will score a lot of points, but Green Bay will score a lot more. The Packers are in a position to add to the Saints' early-season woes.

NFL Football Betting Pick: Green Bay


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