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Saints vs Rams Odds - Expect a nightmare, not a miracle, for the Rams

Posted by Stan Simmons on 11/13/2009 12:00:44 PM
NFL betting lineThe Saints vs Rams odds will scare some bettors – the same paranoid guys who saw their worst fears come true when Tampa Bay beat Green Bay last week. While it’s true that NFL betting surprises us every week, a Rams upset over the unbeaten Saints would be beyond surprising. I’m not sure the Saints could lose this game if they tried. But can they cover the big spread?

Saints vs Rams Odds: Saints -13.5
WHAT: NFL betting
WHEN: Sunday, November 15, 1:00 p.m. ET
WHERE: Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis, MO
KEY STAT: Saints are first in the NFL in total offense; Rams are 28th in total defense
PICK: Saints -13.5

Saints vs Rams odds maker breakdown: The Storyline
The Rams were rendered irrelevant weeks ago but the Saints have plenty at stake. On Friday the 13th weekend, this matchup has the dreaded “trap game” label attached to it. Is there any way the Rams get fired up at home, ride the crowd and become the first team to beat New Orleans this year? Stranger things have happened to sportsbook bettors.

Saints vs Rams odds maker breakdown: Offense
The Saints are the standard for offense in the NFL. Drew Brees is an athletic signal caller with an amazing knack for putting the ball where only his receivers can get it. He capitalizes on Marques Colston’s perhaps unparalleled leaping ability seemingly every week. Pierre Thomas has made the Saints that much more dangerous by giving them one of the league’s best rushing attacks too. As much as New Orleans fourth-ranked passing attack gets love, its fifth-ranked running game also deserves some.

Steven Jackson has been St. Louis’ lone bright spot this season; this is a recording. That he has a shot at 1,500 rushing yards in the Rams’ anemic offense this season is simply amazing.

Betting Edge: Saints

Saints vs Rams odds maker breakdown: Defense
As phenomenal as New Orleans’ offense has been this year, last year’s Saints were almost as good. The big difference this season is the Saints “D.” It ranks in the middle of the pack statistically, largely because defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis’ injury has opened up massive holes for opposing runners. But the Saints specialize in big plays galore. Led by Darren Sharper, who is making a run at Defensive Player of the Year, the Saints have intercepted 16 passes and scored five defensive touchdowns. They’re absolutely salivating at the prospect of facing shell-shocked Marc Bulger.

Under Steve Spagnuolo and with several defensive draftees joining the team, the Rams will eventually improve defensively. Not this season, however.

Betting Edge: Saints

Saints vs Rams odds for total: 50
Mega blowouts are always tricky for online betting fans making over/under picks. Sure, the Saints should top 40 points, but what if the Rams only score six? Suddenly, the game falls under the total. I think the Saints will jump ahead early and put the ball on the ground, so a 40-6 type of score sounds appropriate. That would keep this game under the total.

Pick: Under 50

Saints vs Rams odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
We can’t downplay Sedrick Ellis’ absence up the middle for New Orleans, as it made a significant difference against Michael Turner and DeAngelo Williams over the last two weeks. Steven Jackson will give the Saints problems. Corner Jabari Greer’s injured groin could also keep him out, so the Saints are hindered by injuries more than the relatively healthy Rams.

Betting Edge: Rams

Saints vs Rams betting breakdown: Outlook and Pick
The paranoid bettor worries about Steven Jackson. While he has a legit shot at 100 yards this week, we should remember that the Rams will fall behind early and eventually have to pass the football. That will probably lead to turnovers. I just don’t see the Rams scoring enough to beat a 13.5 spread. Losing by 20 or less would be an accomplishment.

STAN’S PICK: Saints -13.5

Check for updated Saints vs Rams odds right up until Sunday’s kickoff. Keep reading the Betting Edge at for in-depth sports betting analysis from our team of expert handicappers.



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