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Steelers vs Broncos Odds - Steelers will stop the run, steal the win

Posted by Stan Simmons on 11/2/2009 3:16:00 PM
NFL week linesThe Steelers vs Broncos odds show that the road gets harder every week for the Broncos, who appear to have the toughest schedule in NFL betting. After a humbling loss to Baltimore – Denver’s first defeat of the season – it will be interesting to see how the Broncos respond against a tough Steelers team fresh off a bye.

Steelers vs Broncos Odds: Steelers -3 (Total: 38.5)

  • WHAT: NFL betting
  • WHEN: Monday, November 9, 8:35 p.m. ET
  • WHERE: Invesco Field at Mile High in Denver, CO
  • KEY STAT: Steelers lead the NFL in run defense despite facing Chris Johnson, Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson earlier this season
  • PICK: Steelers -3; Under 38.5

Steelers vs Broncos odds maker breakdown: The Storyline
With six wins already this season, the Broncos have already proven to us that they’re a legitimately competitive football team at the very least. The next step is to show they can respond well to adversity. A strong performance against the defending Super Bowl champions after a loss would earn the Broncos serious respect. Meanwhile, the Steelers simply hope to keep their momentum going after rattling off four straight victories.

Steelers vs Broncos odds maker breakdown: Offense
Both teams have been efficient without being dominant offensively so far this online betting season. At times, the Steelers struggle to run the ball; even Rashard Mendenhall has faded after it looked like he would take the starting running back reins and run with them. Pittsburgh’s passing game, however, has been fantastic. Big Ben Roethlisberger is the focal point of the offense for the first time in his career and he’s flourishing, on pace to shatter most of his career highs. Even against an extremely tough Denver “D,” his mobility will buy him time to make throws.

Kyle Orton is playing the role Roethlisberger used to play; excellent caretaker. He doesn’t turn the ball over much at all and he makes the odd big play to Brandon Marshall. Aside from that, though, the Broncos are a run-first team. Knowshon Moreno isn’t a star yet but he’s solid; Correll Buckhalter gives him support too.

These two offenses are pretty even, but Pittsburgh has a few more playmakers with Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Heath Miller all having great seasons, so the Steelers have a tiny edge.

Betting Edge: Steelers

Steelers vs Broncos odds maker breakdown: Defense
It’s safe to say that no one’s running on the Steelers this season. Thanks to a dominant front seven, they allow an NFL-low 76.6 rushing yards per game. And that comes from a team that has faced Chris Johnson, Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson.

The Steelers, however, are somewhat pedestrian against the pass, partially because Troy Polamalu missed time earlier this season. The Broncos have proven equally dominant against the pass and the run; their pass rush in particular has been absolutely dominant, tallying an AFC-high 23 sacks this season. Playing at home, Denver should get an additional boost, so it has a slight defensive edge.

Betting Edge: Broncos

Steelers vs Broncos odds for total: 38.5
Over or under? This game is tough to call. On one hand, both teams play such good defense that it’s tough to imagine many points being scored. On the other hand, both teams have big-play ability, so they could surprise. In the end, I’d bet under the total since each team will likely force the quarterback’s hand with blitz-heavy defensive approaches.

Pick: Under 38.5

Steelers vs Broncos odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
Pittsburgh is relatively healthy, though defensive starters Lawrence Timmons and Travis Kirschke got dinged up against the Vikings and may not be ready for Monday night. Broncos right tackle Ryan Harris injured his toe against Baltimore and is day-to-day. A few other starters, including Brian Dawkins, are hurting but not expected to miss the game.

Betting Edge: Broncos

Steelers vs Broncos betting breakdown: Outlook and Pick
Think of Monday as Kyle Orton’s chance to prove he can take the Broncos on his shoulders when pressed to do so. Pittsburgh will almost certainly bottle up Denver’s running game so the Broncos will have no choice but to lean on Orton more than normal. I think he’ll play into Pittsburgh’s hands. Don’t be surprised if Orton lays his first egg of the season. The Steelers will take their lumps too – Denver’s defense is the real deal – but they’ll rely on their savvy to grind out a tough win. If they get an early lead, they’ll have no problem scaling back their passing attack to control the clock. Bet on the Steelers at your sportsbook.

STAN’S PICK: Steelers -3

For updated Steelers vs Broncos odds, keep checking the sportsbook. Also, keep reading the Betting Edge for comprehensive NFL sports betting analysis throughout the week.

Stan Simmons is one of's NFL experts.



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