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Super Bowl Betting – Pro Bettor Stan Simmons Examines the Super Bowl Bets

Posted by Stan Simmons on 2/5/2010 1:58:02 PM

The Super Bowl odds have been up for nearly two weeks and with the fame finally approaching, it’s time to lay down the action. We saw the line open 3.5 and climbed all the way until 5.5, but with lots of speculation in regards to Indianapolis Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney’s status, the line has dropped to 4.5. Here are my picks for the game:

Super Bowl Betting Picks:

Pick #1: Colts -220

The first sentiment is usually the right sentiment, which is why the Colts -3.5 is the first pick. After watching the New Orleans Saints receive five gift turnovers from the Minnesota Vikings in the Championship Game and then barely winning by three points in overtime, the original sentiment is that the Saints can’t play with the Colts.

Granted, two weeks to prepare likely benefits New Orleans more than it does Indy, since Indy has been here before, but NFL betting cappers have to understand that any team with two weeks to prepare is dangerous. That is why the play is on the moneyline instead of the spread.

But the Colts have the experience and that will be the main factor. That and the fact that no team has beat them this year when they have played their starters the entire way through.

Pick #2: Colts +10.5 -1400

Online betting cappers know that the Super Bowl presents all sorts of different lines and this one is too enticing to pass up. When handicapping this game and chatting around the water cooler, the question came up: when is the last time the Colts lost by 11 when playing their starters?

You’d have to go all the way back to Week 6 of last year to find their last loss by 11 or more and as bettors will recall, the Colts had a slow start because Peyton Manning (knee) wasn’t healthy to start the 2008-09 season.

In 2007, the Colts lost four times including their playoff loss by San Diego and no loss was bigger than six points. The Colts hardly ever get blown out and while the juice is extremely high, you are paying for safety here.

Pick #3: Over 1 Combined Missed Field Goals +350

Call this more of a hunch, but there is a strong belief here that Saints kicker Garrett Hartley misses at least a field goal in this game. He’s only had 25 field goal attempts in his entire NFL career and you have to figure that he’ll be nervous.

Granted, when you do the math, he’s only had 25 attempts in two years, which boils down to less than one attempt per game. Even so, this figures to be a high-scoring contest and if he misses one, you get the push, and if you get another miss – either a long field goal try at the end of the half or any other type of miss – you hit the over. The belief here is there will be one miss with a shot at two. +350 from the sportsbook is worth the shot.

For most NFL betting articles and analysis from Stan Simmons, check back in the Betting Edge regularly.


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