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Texans Colts Betting Tips – Houston Must Win To Remain AFC Contender

Posted by Tony Bryant on 12/24/2012 4:49:17 PM
The Houston Texans will play a high-stakes game this Sunday in Indianapolis. Win, and they get home-field advantage in the playoffs. Lose, and they will miss a first-round bye altogether.

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts – Sunday, December 30  
  

Betting line: No line

Why Houston Will Win

The online sports betting legal world has ample reason to not necessarily bet in favor of Houston, but against Indianapolis in this contest. The Colts' offense is not yet at a level where it can and should be trusted in a main-event throwdown such as this one. The thing that so many casual fans either ignore or overlook about Andrew Luck, as good as the rookie quarterback is, is that he commits a lot of turnovers.

Luck has thrown 18 interceptions this year, an average of more than one per game, and he has completed just 54 percent of his passes. Indianapolis has won 10 games, but it has barely beaten a lot of bad teams, with last week's 20-13 win at Kansas City being just such an example. The Colts have won a lot of games by only one score against teams that should be getting drubbed by 20 or 30 points. This is not an elite team by any stretch.

Indianapolis is merely benefiting from an AFC that has proven to be far weaker than anyone else could have reasonably expected. Houston will be limited on offense in this game, but there's little doubt that the Texans' defense can win this game. Houston will be motivated to play; the Texans will be chasing home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

Why Indianapolis Will Win

The football betting experts who are dissecting this contest are probably surprised by the extent to which Houston collapsed against the Minnesota Vikings this past Sunday. The Texans were nine-and-a-half-point favorites against the Vikes in what was a very important game for the franchise. Houston had a chance to simultaneously lock up a first-round bye and the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs, thereby tucking away home-field advantage on the road to the Super Bowl.

The Texans were supposed to dispose of the Vikings, who had a very limited offense that consisted of only one player: running back Adrian Peterson. Minnesota had not shown an ability to throw the ball under quarterback Christian Ponder, so with Houston playing at home against a young and unproven signal caller, it seemed that the Texans were in great shape.

Instead, they laid an egg.

It's not as though Minnesota's passing game was particularly effective. Ponder completed 16 for 30 passes for just 174 yards. However, Ponder didn't commit a turnover, and the Vikings kicked three field goals to score 23 points. Minnesota was not brilliant on offense, but it was adequate. However, given the way Houston's offense has been playing in 2012, the Texans should have been able to win against a low-octane offense that didn't finish drives. However, they didn't even come close.

The Texans failed to score a touchdown, at one point turning a first and goal at the 1 into a 32-yard field goal. This team might also be without Arian Foster, its best offensive player, in this game. Foster was diagnosed with an irregular heartbeat after the loss to Minnesota. The Colts are in great position to take advantage of Houston's weaknesses and beat the Texans at home. Houston needs a running game in order for its offense to work.

Who Will Win

It’s true that Houston might be without Arian Foster, but it seems that the Colts are mentally weary after all the heavy lifting they've done this season. Indianapolis is locked into the number five seed in the AFC playoffs and might view this game as less than fully important. Houston has to win; the Texans will find a way to pull it out.

NFL Football Betting Pick: Houston

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