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Texans vs Colts Odds - Texans' defense can't keep up with Manning, Colts

Posted by Stan Simmons on 11/3/2009 11:32:37 AM
NFL linesSportsbook players hear each year that Houston is a solid sleeper NFL pick, yet they’ve never even had a winning season. They’re off to a great start so far, but they head to Indianapolis, where they’ve never won, to take on a Colts team that looks as good as anyone. The Texans’ lack of a pass rush will be their downfall, as Peyton Manning will pick them apart.

Texans vs Colts Odds: Colts -9.5 (Total: 48)

  • WHAT: NFL betting
  • WHEN: Sunday, November 8, 1:00 PM ET
  • WHERE: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
  • KEY STAT: Houston is 0-7 in Indianapolis
  • PICK: Colts -9, OVER 48

Texans vs Colts odds maker breakdown: The Storyline
The Texans (5-3) have won three straight and are second in the AFC South, paced by a high-powered offense, and they could be en route to their first winning season and playoff berth in franchise history. Houston is chasing the unbeaten Colts (7-0), who are 7-0 for the fourth time in five seasons. This is big for the Colts as they try to remain perfect, but it’s even bigger for the Texans, who are out to prove they’re ready to compete in the AFC South.

Betting Edge: Houston

Texans vs Colts odds maker breakdown: Offense
The Texans are eighth in the league in offense, but they suffered a big loss as tight end Owen Daniels, their second-leading receiver behind Andre Johnson, is gone for the year with a torn ACL. Matt Schaub may look for Steve Slaton out more in the flat, but the second-year running back has struggled this year. Ryan Moats ran for 123 yards and three scores in a 31-10 win over Buffalo, so Slaton’s spot could be in jeopardy.

Peyton Manning has thrown for over 300 yards in six of his seven games this year, with 15 touchdowns and four picks. The Colts lost Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez, and they keep rolling along. The ground game is showing signs of life, but it’s the aerial attack that makes Indy one of the online betting favorites this year. They have to be better in the red zone then they were in an 18-14 win over San Francisco, when they were stopped all four times inside the 20.

Betting Edge: Colts

Texans vs Colts odds maker breakdown: Defense
This is where the Texans have troubles, especially against the run as they’re 20th in the NFL, but they are getting better. Rookie linebacker Brian Cushing leads the team in tackles and is on his way to a long and productive NFL career, but the Texans need to get some kind of pass rush going as their 11 sacks is 30th in the NFL, which has Manning salivating.

The Colts quietly have the fourth-best defense in the league, and it truly is a team effort as nine players have at least 23 tackles, led by Antoine Bethea’s 49. Bob Sanders is also getting back into shape, and he had a pick last week. They do have some troubles stopping the run though, as they’re 17th in the NFL.

Betting Edge: Colts

Texans vs Colts odds maker breakdown: Notable Injuries
The injury to Owen Daniels (knee) has potential to ruin the Texans’ season as they don’t really have a No.2 receiver to complement Johnson.

The Colts are banged up, as corners Kelvin Hayden (concussion/knee) and Marlin Jackson (knee) could miss this game, along with running back Donald Brown (shoulder) and linebacker Tyjuan Hagler (elbow). However, Gonzalez (knee) is rehabbing nicely and could practice this week.

Betting Edge: Texans

Texans vs Colts odds for total: Over/Under 48
Nine of the last 10 games between these two have gone over the posted total, and given the offensive prowess of both this year, it looks like a safe bet this week. However, Houston has to find another target to replace Daniels, which could slow down their offense a bit. The Indy offense will do their fair share, though.

Pick: OVER 48

Texans vs Colts betting breakdown: Outlook and Pick
When was the only win over the Colts for Houston in their last 10 meetings? It came on Christmas Eve 2006, when beat Indy 27-24 at home. Last year’s meetings were close as the Colts won by an average of five points. This year’s first meeting will be a bit different as the Colts will gang up on Johnson and force Schaub to use someone else. If the Texans don’t get pressure on Manning, who was sacked three times against the 49ers, it’ll be a long day for Houston fans. Colts will win to go to 8-0 and cover the spread.

STAN’S PICK: Colts -9

For more sports betting tips on the way to the Super Bowl, check out Stan in the Betting Edge at For more on the Texans vs Colts matchup, check out our stats section.

Stan Simmons is one of's NFL experts.



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