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Super Bowl Odds – Five things that will decide the Super Bowl Winner

Posted by Stan Simmons on 5/3/2012 9:46:46 AM

Super Bowl betting players are looking for any advantage they can get when it comes to making their Super Bowl picks. There’s a few things to look for when it comes to making this decision, and you can look at the boxscore on Monday to see if we’re right, because these five things will definitely have a hand in crowning the Super Bowl winner.

In four of the last six Super Bowls, one team has had more turnovers than their opposition. Only once did the team with more turnovers win the game, This was accomplished by Pittsburgh in 2005, when they had two turnovers to a single one for Seattle, but went on to win 21-10. Both teams have three picks during the playoffs, while the Saints have recovered four fumbles to Indianapolis’ two. 

NFL betting players know that Drew Brees of the Saints and Peyton Manning of the Colts will stand back in the pocket and pick you apart if you give them time, so the team with more should improve their chances of winning. Four of the last six Super Bowl winners have had more sacks than their opponent, and it’s a good indicator of how much pressure they’re getting on the quarterback. Both teams have a single sack during the playoffs, but they do get in the backfield.

Penalties will kill the best teams’ chances. Again, four of the last six Super Bowl winners have had fewer penalties than their opponents, and with the explosiveness in these two offenses, you can’t give them any more chances than they already have. Penalties on third down by the defenses will be especially dangerous because the quicker you can get these offenses off the field, the better, which leads into our next point.

Third-Down Efficiency
In what is becoming a trend, four of the last six Super Bowl winners have had a higher third-down percentage, and this is imperative, especially later in the game when you’re trying to protect a lead, or keep a drive going. New Orleans has converted 40% of their third-down opportunities, but Indy isn’t far behind at 38%, so sports betting players need to make on pick based on who they think will be able to move the chains.

This isn’t really a stat, but it’s something to look at anyway. The Colts still have a whole cast of holdovers from the team that won the Super Bowl in 2006 against Chicago in Miami, and you can bet that they’re drawing on that experience having all of those rings in the dressing room to inspire the young guys on the team. Meanwhile, there aren’t that many notable Saints with a ring, outside of Jeremy Shockey, who was on the New York team that upset New England two years ago (even though he didn’t play in the Super Bowl due to injury).

For all the Super Bowl picks, lines and odds you need for the big game, head over to the Betting Edge at BetOnline for analysis and advice to make your picks today!



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