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PGA Championship Odds - Tiger's time to shine

Posted by Marco Sussman on 4/26/2012 9:30:05 AM


The PGA Championship odds finish off what has been a slightly wacky 2009 major championship season in golf betting. It’s been a year of unexpected winners, from the underrated Angel Cabrera to the unknown Lucas Glover to the forgotten Stewart Cink. This time around, we can expect a household name to finally break through.

PGA Championship odds: Tiger peaking at the right time

  • WHAT: The 2009 PGA Championship
  • WHEN: Thursday, August 13 to Sunday, August 16
  • WHERE: Hazeltine National Golf Club in Chaska, Minnesota
  • KEY STAT: 7,674-yard layout is the longest in major championship history
  • THE PICK: Tiger Woods +175

There are boatloads of legit names to consider at the sportsbook in PGA Championship betting, so let’s break down the 10 picks listed above.

Tiger Woods (+175) is the obvious favorite and the best guy to pick this week. We’re not just telling you to pick him because he’s Tiger Woods; remember, we strongly advised you not to pick him for the British Open. But his PGA Championship odds look great. He won the Buick Open and was in contention at the Bridgestone as of press time. We thus know that Tiger is getting his confidence back. We also know his recent success came at courses that reward long hitters. No course will do so more than Hazeltine, which is playing longer than any major course in PGA history this week.

Surprise, surprise; Phil Mickelson’s PGA Championship odds are next at +1600. It’s been a rocky year on and off the course for Lefty, but I expect his best showing in a while this week. A long course like Hazeltine won’t punish him for his aggressiveness. If he hits an errant drive on a par five, he’s still long enough to get on in regulation and post a red figure. He’ll contend this week.

Jim Furyk (+2500) keeps hanging around and he cracked the top 10 the last time the PGA Championship odds went down at Hazeltine, but his breakthrough should’ve happened already this season. He can’t seem to get his game to the next level and you have to wonder if he’s past his prime.

What about Sergio Garcia? He’s due for a turnaround. He’s 18th on Tour in driving distance, so that gives him a chance this week, but everything else about his game has been atrocious this season, especially his putting. That doesn’t bode well for him on Sunday and his +2500 odds don’t reflect his poor play this season.

Kenny Perry may tempt some bettors at +2800. He’s the picture of good ball striking, ranking near the top of the Tour in virtually every accuracy-oriented stat. But he’s not a long enough hitter to really have an advantage at Hazeltine and I’m not convinced he can conquer his Masters demons in another major any time soon.

If Padraig Harrington offered better value than +2800, he’d be worth a flier. He finally started showing signs of a turnaround at the Bridgestone. Too bad the betting lines base his odds on last year’s performance by the looks of it; the way he’s played this year, he’ should be +8000.

Anthony Kim can’t be forgotten at +3300. He has all the tools needed to succeed at Hazeltine – length off the tee, the ability to capitalize on birdie holes and great putting. But we still don’t know if the youngster can break the mental barrier on Sundays. Still, if you don’t want Tiger, Kim is a solid pick.

I can’t fault anyone for picking Retief Goosen (+3300). He’s “boring” but he’s rock-solid, proven in majors. However, his driving is poor – 80th in length and 131st in accuracy – so the bombers should bypass him on the leaderboard.

Paul Casey (+3300) has that bigtime length needed to succeed at Hazeltine, but he withdrew from the Bridgestone with a rib injury and is highly unlikely to play the PGA Championship. Even if he does, he likely won't be himself. I like Kim better at the same value.

Why does Angel Cabrera (+5000) get overlooked so often? Yes, his drives can’t hit the broad side of a barn, but he still won two accuracy-oriented majors (Masters, U.S. Open) despite that. He hits the ball a mile – 10th on Tour at 300.7 yards – so he could have a Mickelson-like performance this week.

MARCO’S PICK: Bet on Tiger Woods to win. He’s rounding into form just in time for a legendary performance. Did I mention he finished second the last time the PGA Championship odds took place at Hazeltine? If you want better value, consider Kim or Cabrera.

For full PGA Championship odds and other sports betting odds, visit the Betting Edge at

Marco Sussman isn't too bad on the links, reportedly a five handicap. But, he's great in the sports betting game. He'll watch just about anything you put in front of him, but golf is what really gets his juices flowing. Thoughts or questions?

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