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Belmont Derby Betting – Dance With Fate Rolls On Saturday

Posted by on 7/3/2014 10:43:55 PM

The Grade-1 Belmont Derby is the former Jamaica Handicap, to those old-school horse bettors. This event carries a $1.25 million purse for three-year-olds, and it is run on a turf surface. It is the signature race for the inaugural Stars And Stripes event at Belmont Park, along with the Belmont Oaks for the fillies, and there is a big international flavor to this field.

However, an American horse will win the first Belmont Derby as Dance With Fate should win easily enough.

What : Horse Betting

When : Saturday, July 5th, post time TBA

Where : Belmont Park, Elmont, NY

Pick : Dance With Fate

Adelaide is an Irish colt which has finished first or second in each of his first four starts, but this will be his debut on American soil. He seems to have a lot of top-end speed, but how will he fare in the United States? This is a huge race for this three-year-old.

Bobby’s Kitten finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf in November, then won an allowance race and the non-graded Penn Mile in March and May, respectively. In between, he finished 12th in the Grade-1 Blue Grass, but that was on a synthetic surface and he is clearly a turf horse.

Dance With Fate won the aforementioned Blue Grass and then came in a respectable sixth at the Kentucky Derby in May. In his lone turf start, an allowance race, Dance With Fate won and he could be the favorite.

Flamboyant hails from France and he has finished first or second in his first three starts, and two of those starts came in the United States, so that is an edge for him. However, this will be his first graded-stakes race, so keep that in mind.

Gailo Chop is undefeated in his first four starts, all of which have come in France, so it’ll be interesting to see how he handles the step up in competition. He hasn’t been in a competitive race since April, so that could be a factor on Saturday.

Gala Award has finished first or second in his four turf starts, and he also finished sixth in the Blue Grass, which isn’t a bad result. It also helps to have a first-class trained like Todd Pletcher in his stable, and Pletcher will be going for his third win at this event after Finality in 2002 and Take The Points in 2009.

Global View has three wins in seven starts, and a victory in the Grade-2 American Turf showed that he would be a serious contender in a race such as this. He finished second to Bobby’s Kitten at the Penn Mile, and you could be able to get him for some good value this weekend.

Mr. Speaker has two wins on turf, but he needs a bounce-back performance after finishing fifth at the non-graded Pennine Ridge in May. Prior to that, he did win the Grade-3 Coolmore Lexington Stakes in April on a synthetic surface, so we have seen this colt pull out some memorable races. He’ll need another one on Saturday.

Pornichet will be making his third start overall and first on United States soil, and his first two results haven’t been awe-inspiring. He finished fifth in the Prix Montenica in March on a synthetic surface, then third at the Grade-1 Poule Essai des Poulain, both of which were in France. His run in the latter race might be slightly encouraging, but he’ll have to find another gear to finish in the top three at Belmont Park.

Sheldon is going to be near the bottom of the list for this race after needing six attempts to break his maiden, and last October he finished sixth in the Grade-3 Pilgrim, which was won by Bobby’s Kitten. Any horse that needs six tries to break his maiden won’t get much love in the odds, and it would be a borderline miracle if he won this race.

Toast Of New York is making his US debut after four starts overseas, and he has won his last three starts, including the Grade-2 UAE Derby in March. Those three wins came on synthetic, however, and he finished fifth on turf at the non-graded Maiden Stakes last summer. Toast Of New York is one of the most intriguing horses in this field.

How It Will Play Out

Keep an eye on Toast Of New York, but the smart money is on Dance With Fate to win this weekend at Belmont Park.

Belmont Derby Betting Pick: Dance With Fate

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