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Breeders’ Cup Classic Betting – Tonalist Captures The Classic

Posted by on 10/29/2014 3:51:51 AM

The Breeders’ Cup Classic might be the biggest race of the year, even bigger than the Triple Crown races. It is the final event of the Breeders’ Cup event, and it is for horses three years old and up, over 1¼ miles on dirt. It also features a purse of $5 million.

This race is tough to predict because of the high quality, but Tonalist should be your pick for the Classic on Saturday.

What: Horse Betting

When: Saturday, November 1st, post time TBA

Where: Santa Anita Park, Arcadia, CA

Pick: Tonalist

Bayern has three graded-stakes wins this year, including the Grade-2 Pennsylvania Derby in September. However, a ninth-place run at the Preakness Stakes and a 10th at the Grade-1 Travers Stakes might scare some off this talented three-year-old colt.

California Chrome has run in just one race since a fourth-place run at the Belmont Stakes shattered his dreams of a Triple Crown, and he finished sixth at the Pennsylvania Derby, so it might be a matter of a horse peaking too early. He is probably still in the running for the Three-Year-Old Horse Of The Year, but a win would certainly lock it up for California Chrome.

Candy Boy has had a number of close calls and has finished in the top three in five of six starts this year. However, he has no wins and he finished 13 th at the Kentucky Derby, so there are some questions about his closing speed and how he fares against top-level competition.

Cigar Street won the non-graded Homecoming Classic in September and in just two graded-stakes events, he has a win at the Grade-3 Skip Away Stakes last month and a fourth at the Grade-2 Louisiana Derby, but that was in April of 2012. There just isn’t enough big races for this five-year-old, but he might be worth a longshot bet.

Footbridge finished third at the Grade-1 Awesome Again after going second at the Grade-2 San Diego Handicap, but he has just three graded-stakes starts as a four-year-old colt and he might be out of his element in a race like the Classic.

Imperative is another horse which will likely bring up the rear in terms of the odds for the Classic, and he is coming off a fifth-place run at the Awesome Again. He won the Grade-2 Charles Town Classic in April, but Imperative is very inconsistent and you don’t know what you’re going to get from him from race to race.

Majestic Harbor came in fourth at the Awesome Again, but he has won twice in graded-stakes events this year, the Grade-3 Tokyo City Cup in March and the Grade-1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita, where both of those wins took places. He might be a solid a value pick, so keep an eye on this six-year-old.

Moreno stumbled to a ninth-place finish at the Grade-1 Jockey Club Gold Cup in September, but he also won the Grade-1 Whitney Handicap and finished second at the Grade-1 Woodward Stakes in August, so this four-year-old gelding is definitely an intriguing option. He can run with the best on his top days, but will Saturday be one of those days?

Prayer For Relief came in third at the Woodward and doesn’t have a graded-stakes win in 2014 out of seven starts, but he has finished in the top four in five of those races, so he could be an issue if he is around the front at the end. This six-year-old horse could be a value pick for a top-three finish

Shared Belief might be the favorite after winning the Awesome Again, and he is undefeated in seven career starts, five of which have been graded-stakes events. However, he hasn’t taken part in the Triple Crown races, so some think he might be overvalued. This will be a huge, huge rave for this three-year-old gelding.

Toast of New York came in second to Shared Belief at the Grade-1 Pacific Classic in August, but this will be his first race on dirt and he has spent most of his career overseas, so it’ll be interesting to see how he fares in a race like the Classic. Keep an eye on this three-year-old.

Tonalist has three wins in five graded-stakes races this year, and won the Belmont to end California Chrome’s Triple Crown hopes. He also won the Jockey Club Gold Cup and has finished in the top three in all of those graded-stakes races. He will be one to watch.

V.E. Day followed up his win at the Travers with a fifth-place run at the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and those were his only graded-stakes starts in seven career races. He needed three tries to break his maiden, so he probably won’t be high in the odds for the Classic.

Zivo rounds out the field and he is an interesting option. He has made 16 starts, winning eight times and finishing in the top three 15 times (he finished fourth at the Woodward). However, he needed three tries to break his maiden and only three of those starts were graded-stakes events, but he finished second to Tonalist at the Gold Cup. He might be worth taking a flier on.

How It Will Play Out

Tonalist has performed very well on the big stage this year, and he will come away with a massive win in the Classic on Saturday.

Breeders’ Cup Classic Betting Pick: Tonalist

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