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Malibu Stakes Betting – Believe In Shared Belief On Boxing Day

Posted by on 12/25/2014 1:36:42 AM

The Grade-1 Malibu Stakes takes place at Santa Anita Park on Boxing Day, and it features a $300,000 purse for a solid field. This race is for three-year-old colts or geldings, and it is one of the bigger races you will find at the tail end of the year. It is run over seven furlongs on dirt, so it is more of a sprint.

One of the top thoroughbreds of 2014 should come away with the victory on Friday as Shared Belief just missed out on a top-three spot at the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He’ll make up for it somewhere with a win at Santa Anita.

What : Horse Betting

When : Friday, December 26th, post time 3:30 PM ET

Where : Santa Anita Park, Arcadia, CA

Pick : Shared Belief

Chitu won the non-graded Damascus Stakes on Halloween, his first race since finishing ninth at the Kentucky Derby. Outside of that result, Chitu finished first or second in six starts and he’ll probably come into this race as one of the favorites.

Conquest Two Step is making his graded-stakes debut after winning an allowance race back in October. He has finished in the top three in five of his six starts, but Conquest Two Step has never faced the field this strong, so this will be a true test of his speed.

Diamond Bachelor will be a longshot as he hasn’t won a race since the non-graded Oak Tree Juvenile last September, and that was on turf. He has just one top-three finish since coming in ninth at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year, and that was an allowance race in August. Don’t expect much from this colt.

Frensham has made ten starts, but just one has come in a graded-stakes event and that was a sixth at the Grade-3 Affirmed in June. It took him three tries to break his maiden and his other win came on turf in an allowance race in October. This field might be too much for Frensham.

Indianapolis won his first two starts, including his maiden on his first try, then he won the non-graded San Pedro in January. However, Indianapolis didn’t see the track again until the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, which ended in a 10th-place result, so he might simply be rusty and this is another chance for this colt to stretch his legs.

Midnight Hawk is an interesting option as he has finished in the top three in each of his first seven starts, breaking his maiden on his first try. Five of those starts came in graded-stakes events and he looked on his way to greatness, but Midnight Hawk took seven months and then came third in an allowance race. Will rust play a factor for this colt?

Pimpernel needed four attempts to break his maiden, and in his lone non-allowance or maiden race, he finished ninth at the non-graded Bachelor in May, after which he took four months off. He still hasn’t raced since winning an allowance race in October, so a win from Pimpernel would be a huge shocker.

Rprettyboyfloyd broke his maiden on his fifth try, but he also came in third at the Grade-2 San Vicente in February and then sixth at the Grade-1 Santa Anita Derby two months later. Like many other horses in this field, Rprettyboyfloyd took a big break, this time from May to October, and he might have been too busy after a busy first half of the year. Keep an eye on this gelding.

Shared Belief should be the favorite coming into this event as he had won his first seven starts, five of which were graded-stakes races and three were Grade-1 events. He finished a respectable fourth at the Breeders’ Cup Classic, which is excellent for a three-year-old and coming in behind the likes of Bayern, Toast Of New York and California Chrome is nothing to sneeze at.

Tamarando has made 14 starts in his career and two of his three wins have come in graded-stakes events; the Grade-1 Del Mar Futurity last September and the Grade-3 El Camino Real Derby in February of this year. He is coming off a seventh-place result at the Grade-3 Native Diver, so consistency isn’t one of Tamarando’s best traits.

How It Will Play Out

The Malibu should be an exciting race to wrap up the 2015 schedule and this is a very good field, but Shared Belief has shown he is one of the best three-year-olds of the year and he’ll prove it by getting back to the winner’s circle on Friday.

Malibu Stakes Betting Pick: Shared Belief

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