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Shadwell Turf Mile Betting – It’s Tough To Look Past Wise Dan

Posted by on 10/2/2014 3:32:07 AM

The Shadwell Turf Mile is a Grade-1 race at Keeneland, and the winner will qualify for the prestigious Breeders’ Cup Mile in November. It features a purse of a staggering $2,000,000, and it is for horses three years old and up, run on turf over a mile.

Wise Dan has had a glittering career, but he has had a spotty record in this race. However, he will pull out all the stops on Saturday in Lexington and make it to the wire first to continue his trek towards the Breeders’ Cup.

What: Horse Betting

When: Saturday, October 4th, post time 5:45 PM ET

Where: Keeneland Race Course, Lexington, KY

Pick: Wise Dan

Grand Arch had a solid run halted in his tracks with a fifth-place result at the Grade-1 Woodbine Mile last month, and prior to that, he had finished in the top three in his first 15 starts. However, that might be misleading as 11 of those were either maiden, allowance or non-graded events and he has yet to win a graded-stakes race. This five-year-old gelding is an intriguing option, but he will need to find another gear this weekend.

Kaigun finished second to Trade Storm in the aforementioned Woodbine Mile, and he has now made six straight starts in graded-stakes events, finishing in the top two four times. He won the Grade-2 Play The King Stakes in August, and this four-year-old gelding would be pointed toward the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint with a win on Saturday.

Optimizer bounced back from a tough 12th-place run at the Grade-2 Elkhorn in April by finishing second at the Grade-2 Bernard Baruch Handicap in August, so he took a few months off. It looked like he needed it as Optimizer had three results in a row of ninth or worse, so maybe he just needed a rest, which isn’t out of the ordinary for a five-year-old horse. However, he will need a strong run this weekend.

Sayaad ran twice in August, finishing fifth at the Grade-2 Fourstardave Handicap at the beginning of the month and then a fourth at the Baruch Handicap at the end. He took September off and should be fresh for the Shadwell Turf Mile, and you should be able to find some good value in this four-year-old colt. With a few breaks, he could end up in the winner’s circle.

Seek Again won the Fourstardave Handicap and in his last four starts, which have all been graded-stakes events, he has two wins, a second and a third, which means this horse has some momentum and he could definitely challenge the top horses in the field. He has taken to turf after starting his career on dirt, and this four-year-old colt is going to be a contender in this race, one way or another.

Silver Max is a horse to consider, even after he finished sixth at the Fourstardave Handicap. Prior to that, he had won the Grade-2 Firecracker Handicap in August after taking some time off, he finished fourth at the Breeders’ Cup Mile last November and he is the defending champion in this race. Even though he looked shaky at the Fourstardave, you should not count out this five-year-old thoroughbred.

Two Notch Road will probably be a longshot despite winning the Punch Line Stakes in the middle of September as that was a non-graded event and he hasn’t fared well in the big races. He has four finishes of fifth or worse in his last five graded-stakes events and the top end of this field is heavy, so this seven-year-old gelding will need the race of his life just to keep up on Saturday.

Wise Dan should be the favorite coming into the race after winning the Baruch Handicap, and he has had an incredible career. Wise Dan has now finished in the top two in 19 of his last 20 starts, and 17 of those have been wins. Nineteen of those starts have been graded-stakes races (the majority of which have been either Grade-1 or Grade-2), but he finished second to Silver Max here last year after winning in 2012 and revenge could be on the menu for this fantastic seven-year-old gelding, who also finished fourth in this race in 2011.

How It Will Play Out

Wise Dan has won the last two editions of the Breeders’ Cup Mile, and will go on to defend his title after winning this race on Saturday.

Shadwell Turf Mile Betting Pick: Wise Dan

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