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Florida Derby Betting – Upstart Books His Ticket To The Kentucky Derby

Posted by on 3/25/2015 10:11:56 PM

The Grade-1 Florida Derby is an official prep race for the Kentucky Derby, and the winner usually goes straight to Churchill Downs to kick off the Triple Crown season. This event is for three-year-olds with a purse of a staggering $1,000,000, and it is run on dirt over 1 1/8 miles.

There is a strong field lining up at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, but Upstart gets some revenge on Itsaknockout for an earlier meeting and will clinch his spot in the Derby in May.

What : Horse Betting

When : Saturday, March 28, 2015, post time TBA

Where : Gulfstream Park, Hallandale Beach, FL

Pick : Upstart

Ami's Flatter came in second at the Grade-2 Tampa Bay Derby earlier this month and he last won in his maiden in November, although he has two runner-up finishes and a fourth. That maiden win came on a synthetic surface while his next three races were on dirt, so that is something to take into account for this Canadian colt. He has never run more than 1 1/16 miles, so it'll be interesting to see how he fares down the stretch.

Dekabrist has two wins in 13 starts, and they came in his first two races last spring, his maiden attempt and the non-graded Kodiak Island. In five graded-stakes events, Dekabrist hasn't finished higher than fifth, so he might be in over his head in a Grade-1 race. Anything can happen in the world of horse racing, but this colt will need a lot to go right to even finish in the money here.

Indianaughty won an allowance race in his debut in January on turf, then finishing ninth at the Grade-3 El Camino Real Derby in February, so there isn't much to go on for this colt. He didn't do himself any favors with his performance at the El Camino, but he probably isn't as poor as he looked on that day. Still, this is another horse that will need a couple breaks to go his way on Saturday.

Itsaknockout rolls into this race perfect so far after breaking his maiden on the first try in December, then he won an allowance race in January before taking the Grade-2 Fountain of Youth in February. This colt is going to be a strong challenger and should wind up in the money at least, and a win isn't out of the question for Itsaknockout.

Jack Tripp broke his maiden on his second try last October, and in four allowance races, he hasn't finished higher than third. That isn't a great resume for a horse in a Kentucky Derby prep race, and it would be a massive upset if Jack Tripp were to even finish in the money, let alone win the event. This gelding is one of the longshots for this race.

Materiality is perfect in two starts, breaking his maiden in January and then taking the non-graded Islamorada in early March. This will be his biggest test yet obviously, but Materiality has shown a lot in his brief time on the track and he has already run the distance of 1 1/8 miles, so it won't be new to him; he'll just be doing it against better competition.

My Point Exactly needed three tries to break his maiden last summer, then won the non-graded Sunday Silence in September and hasn't been on a track since then. That makes him a longshot for Saturday's race as that is a long time to be outside of a race setting, and My Point Exactly has never run more than a mile, which is never a good sign.

Quimet broke his maiden on the third try, then came in second in an allowance race before a third-place result at the Islamorada. His results improved dramatically once he was switched from turf to dirt after two races, and he has run his last two starts at 1 1/8 miles, so it wouldn't be a major surprise if Quimet made some noise this weekend.

Upstart probably comes into this race as the favorite, even after finishing second to Itsaknockout at the Fountain of Youth. He won the Grade-2 Holy Bull in January, which followed a third at the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November and a second at the Grade-1 Champagne in October. This is a horse that was bred to be in the Kentucky Derby and he needs a win on Saturday.

How It Will Play Out

This should be a fun rematch between Upstart and Itsaknockout, however, there are a couple of other horses that could make a splash as well. Still, go with Upstart as the smart choice.

Florida Derby Betting Pick: Upstart

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