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Kentucky Derby Betting – Dortmund Powers Ahead In “Run For The Roses

Posted by on 4/30/2015 9:02:40 PM

The Kentucky Derby is the first jewel in the famous Triple Crown, and it is the most prestigious race in the United States, possibly the world. It has been run at Churchill Downs since 1875, and it is a 1 1/4-mile race run on dirt with a massive purse of $2,000,000, with $1.425 million going to the winner, along with a bouquet of roses.

This is one of the deeper three-year-old fields the Derby has seen in a long time, but only one can head to the winner's circle on Saturday and that will be the impressive Dortmund, which continues to be unbeaten.

What : Horse Betting

When : Saturday, May 2, 2015; post time 6:45 PM ET

Where : Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY

Pick : Dortmund

American Pharoah has won four of his five starts, including the Grade-1 Arkansas Derby; strangely, his lone non-win came in his first maiden attempt, but American Pharoah has done pretty well despite as all four wins were in graded-stakes events, and three are Grade-1 races. He should be right up there in the list of favorites.

Bolo came in third at the Grade-1 Santa Anita Derby, his second straight graded-stakes race where he finished in the money and he should be considered a longshot, but stranger things have happened and he fared decently at Santa Anita.

Carpe Diem won the Grade-1 Blue Grass Stakes and he has four wins in five starts, and he finished second at the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Quietly, he has amassed a solid record and could definitely make a run for the winner's circle.

Danzig Moon finished second to Carpe Diem at the Blue Grass, his best start in two graded-stakes races, but he needed three tries to break his maiden and he could be out of his element on Saturday.

Dortmund is probably going to go into this race as the favorite and he also comes in undefeated after taking the Santa Anita Derby. He has looked phenomenal in each race and there are some that feel like Dortmund still has another gear, which we could see on Saturday.

El Kabeir came in third at the Grade-1 Wood Memorial after winning the Grade-3 Gotham, and has finished in the money in his last six starts, all of which were graded-stakes races. He did well at the Wood, so he might be worth a value shot.

Far Right finished second at the Arkansas Derby, and he has now finished in the money in eight of nine starts, but he did need three tries to break his maiden. His performance at the Arkansas will have to be better than that, however, to finish in the top three.

Firing Line won the Grade-3 Sunland Derby in March, but he hasn't been on the track since, so rust might be a slight issue as many of these horses raced in April. However, he has shown consistency over his five starts, all of which are wins or runner-ups, so keep an eye on him.

Frosted won the aforementioned Wood and he has six results of first or second, but his fourth-place run at the Grade-2 Fountain of Youth Stakes stands out and that will throw some off.

International Star has won three in a row after taking the Grade-2 Louisiana Derby, and a ninth at the Breeders' Cup Juvenile shouldn't be a major issue as horses change a lot from November to May, and he has won three of four since then. This could be a good and solid value pick.

Itsaknockout finished fourth at the Florida Derby after winning his first three starts, but one was a aiden on his first try and then there was an allowance race. That result is going to be tough to overcome for Itsaknockout, but he might be a long, long odds type of horse.

Keen Ice finished fourth at the Louisiana Derby, his third result of fourth or worse, then he has two third-place results and a win in his maiden. He might be the longest shot of the Kentucky Derby and probably isn't worth taking a flier on.

Materiality might be the most intriguing option out there as he has three wins in three starts, but one was a maiden, the next was the non-graded Islamorada, then he won the Florida Derby. Unbeaten is unbeaten and this horse might be a late bloomer; don't be surprised if he shocks the world.

Mr. Z ran third at the Arkansas and he has finished third in four of his last five starts. His lone win came in his maiden and even though he has finished in the money in eight of ten starts, he might not have the extra gear needed in a field like this.

Mubtaahij hails from Ireland and won the Grade-2 UAE Derby, but he might find that the fields in the United States are much better than overseas and he could be in way over his head on Saturday.

Ocho Ocho Ocho won his first three starts, then after an eighth at the Grade-2 San Felipe Stakes, then ran third at the Blue Grass. The eighth is a bit worrying, but this colt might make a run for the top half of the field and down the stretch, anything can happen.

Stanford ran second at the Louisiana and the Islamorada, and he should be considered a darkhorse as well. He does well against one other good horse, but what about a field of 10-15 with a chance to win? We'll see on Saturday.

Tencendur came in second at the Wood, his first finish in the money in three starts and that was on his second maiden try. It would be a small miracle if this colt were to not only win, but even finish in the money.

Upstart has finished in the top three in all seven of his starts, including five in graded-stakes races and he is a definite contender to do it again at Churchill Downs. He could be a very good value pick.

War Story rounds out the 20-horse field and he could be a longshot as this is his first Grade-1 event, but he won his maiden and an allowance race, finished second in the Grade-3 Lecomte and the Grade-2 Risen Star, and third at the Louisiana. His results aren't getting better as the races get tougher.

How It Will Play Out

It's tough to look past Dortmund if this horse has another gear to get to as he has looked awesome in the past and while this is a very deep field, he should be considered the best three-year-old in the country and he is a Triple Crown contender.

Kentucky Derby Betting Pick: Dortumd



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