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Pennsylvania Derby Betting – Upstart Tries To Keep His 2015 Rolling

Posted by on 9/14/2015 11:46:19 PM

The Grade-2 Pennsylvania Derby is the highlight of the year for Parx Racing and Casino, and it is for three-year-old males; there is a female equivalent for this race, the Cotillion, which is run on the same day. There is a purse of one million dollars up for grabs and the field will have to run 1 1/8 miles on dirt.

This race isn't a “Win Or Get In” for the Breeders' Cup, but it doesn't hurt to win it: just ask Bayern, which won this race and then went on to take the Classic. Upstart might not even go to the Classic, but he'll give himself a chance with a victory on Saturday.

What: Horse Betting

When: Saturday, September 19th, 2015; post time 5:45 PM ET

Where: Parx Racing and Casino, Bensalem, PA

Pick: Upstart

Battle Midway finished third in the Grade-3 Smarty Jones in his graded-stakes debut last month, but that was at a mile and 70 yards; he ran the non-graded Curlin' in July at 1 1/8 miles and finished fourth. Given the lack of graded-stakes experience, he'll probably be a longshot, but keep an eye on this colt.

Frosted should be a favorite as he wraps up a tremendous 2015. He has made seven starts, all Grade-1 or Grade-2, and has finished outside of the money twice; one of those was a fourth at the Kentucky Derby. He also finished second at the Belmont Stakes, won the Grade-1 Wood Memorial and is coming off a third at the Grade-1 Travers Stakes. Does he have enough left in the tank? That seems to be the only question for this colt.

Gimme Da Lute has finished in the money in all nine of his starts, winning the last four and two were graded-stakes races. However, the Pennsylvania Derby will be the best field he has ever seen, and he has run this distance just once, although he won the Grade-2 Los Alamitos Derby in July. He is certainly an interesting betting option.

Iron Fist is coming off a fourth at the Grade-2 West Virginia Derby in August, which was his second start of 2015 as he won an allowance race in June, which was his first race since a third at the Grade-1 Del Mar Futurity in September 2014. He might be able to take on this field in a few months, but this colt isn't quite ready for primetime.

Island Town has won three of his last four, including the aforementioned Smarty Jones, but he has never run 1 1/8 miles and he needed three tries to break his maiden; also, one of his wins was an allowance race, so this is another colt that will be facing the best field of his career.

Madefromlucky won the West Virginia Derby, his second win in three graded-stakes races as he also finished sixth at the Belmont. He has two wins and a second in Grade-2 races, but a fourth and a sixth in Grade-1 races; can this colt find another gear? We'll see on Saturday.

Mr. Z has had a busy year as this will be his tenth start, and he has one win at the non-graded Ohio Derby, along with four other starts in the money (three were graded-stakes events). He finished 13th at the Kentucky Derby and fifth at the Preakness, and after a seventh at the Grade-1 King's Bishop last month, he might be good for a value pick, but he'd need a lot to go his way to win.

Tommy Macho has five career starts as he needed two tries to break his maiden, then he won an allowance race, then he followed a third at the Grade-3 Dwyer by finishing seventh at the West Virginia Derby. That should scare some players off, but the odds should give him some value.

Upstart rolled into the Kentucky Derby with a win and two second-place finishes before an 18th at Churchill Downs, but then he rebounded with a third at the Grade-1 Haskell Invitational, then a fourth at the Travers. Upstart has the speed and he can handle good fields; this is a horse worth laying something on this weekend.

War Story finished third at the West Virginia Derby, and he is another horse that has a solid resume outside of the Kentucky Derby as he has two wins (his maiden on his first try and then an allowance race), two second-place results, a pair of thirds and a fourth and in five graded-stakes starts, he has finished in the money in four. Watch out for this gelding.

How It Will Play Out

Frosted and Madefromlucky look like they'll be the betting favorites, but go with Upstart, which should offer a little more value.


Pennsylvania Derby Betting Pick: Upstart

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