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Early Breeders’ Cup Observations

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 10/28/2011 7:46:17 PM
breeders cup filly and mare sprint turf betting

Who: Thoroughbreds – Hard Not to Like, Turbulent Descent, Stacelita, Royal Delta, Big Drama, Regally Ready, Wilburn, Crusade, Goldikova, Drosselmeyer, Flat Out, So You Think, To Honor and Serve, Uncle Mo

What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Breeders’ Cup

Where: Churchill Downs

When: Friday and Saturday, November 4th and 5th

With the Breeders’ Cup a week away, there are precious few horses that look like Pick-6 singles, and as usual, a slew of live longshots. Of course, we’ll have to consider final works, appearance, price, track conditions, scratches, etc., before making any final decisions. Here’s who I like at this point in time, and why:

Hard Not to Like (Juvenile Fillies Turf): Gray filly from north of the border has won 3-of-4 on the lawn, twice beating colts. She had a tough trip in her only loss (as the chalk). Miss can handle various course conditions, and has tactical speed. Hard not to like at morning line odds of 20-1.

Turbulent Descent (Filly and Mare Sprint): 7-furlong distance hits this powerful finisher right between the eyes (3-for-3 lifetime). A single in multi-race wagers at morning line odds of 8-5.

Stacelita (Filly and Mare Turf): 5YO mare towers over her stateside competition, and she’ll prove to be a handful at 5-1 even if high-class Euro-shippers Midday and Sarafina opt for this race.

Royal Delta (Ladies’ Classic): She’s doing super at Churchill thus far. Runner-up finish to Havre de Grace last out was another learning experience…she moved prematurely in her first off-track try vs. her elders. Plum Pretty could be overbet off that last tour de force, so you may see Royal Delta’s morning line odds of 7-2 drift up a bit.

Big Drama (Sprint): I know he’s had setbacks this year, but keep two things in mind…1) he’s the defending champ at this track, and 2) He runs huge off the bench. With a better draw than he had last year (the rail), new pilot Ramon Dominguez will have some options. 7-2 is a square price.

Regally Ready (Turf Sprint): This guy’s won 6-of-9 turf starts, and loves the Churchill lawn (2-for-2…both by daylight). A steal at anything close to 6-1.

Wilburn (Dirt Mile): Sophomore just keeps getting better and better. Note he owns a local win in the slop…just in case. Interesting at 12-1.

Crusade (Juvenile): That last win (Group 1 Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket) was a corker at 25-1 in a 16-horse field! His Racing Post Rating of 114 was excellent. Dirt is a question, but with Mr. Greely and Johannesburg in his bloodlines, Crusade should make the transition. Ignore this Aidan O’Brien shipper at your peril.

Goldikova (Mile): Not much more can be said about this all-time great racemare. If you think she’s lost half a step…perish the thought. Single her in all your multi-race wagers.

Drosselmeyer, Flat Out, So You Think, To Honor and Serve, Uncle Mo (Classic): Drosselmeyer broke his maiden at Churchill in style, and the 2010 Belmont Stakes winner is in the best form of his life. Use him in exactas, tri’s and super’s. Flat Out is training like a monster…could turn the tables on Havre de Grace, who has yet to win at Churchill and at the distance. So You Think is our generation’s version of the mighty Phar Lap. To Honor and Serve is finally starting to run to his press clippings. Uncle Mo loves it at Churchill, and there’s plenty of stamina on his dam’s side to get the mile-and-a-quarter. It should be a hell of a race!

Those are my early horse racing betting tips for the Breeders’ Cup. I’ll be fine-tuning my plays in the coming days, and will post my selections on Thursday of next week. Best of luck and happy gambling!

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