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Alternation Looks Live in Peter Pan

Posted by Pete Mitchell on 5/13/2011 5:50:44 PM
  • Who: Thoroughbreds – Uncle Brent, Prime Cut, Alternation, Adios Charlie, Joe Vann
  • What: Horse Racing Betting Tips – The Peter Pan
  • Where: Belmont Park
  • When: Saturday, May 14th

The Peter Pan at Belmont Park this Saturday looks wide open, with the top five contestants in the 11-horse field assigned morning line odds between 3-1 and 6-1. It’s an interesting mix…some are Triple Crown nominees and may be using this race as a stepping stone to The Belmont Stakes in four weeks. For others, this Grade 2 event may be the main goal. Surprisingly, only four runners have experience over the Belmont Park main oval…their combined record stands at an uninspiring 7-0-1-2. Alternation (6-1) looks like a serious player in here…let’s find out why.

There may not be any speed burners in The Peter Pan, but there figures to be plenty of horses eye-balling one another on or near the front end before the real running starts. Horses making premature moves on “Big Sandy” will pay the price in the final stages. Who fits into this category? I’m guessing that NY-bred stakes winner Bold Deed (20-1), Grade 2 Jerome winner Adios Charlie (3-1) and Grade 3 Illinois Derby winner Joe Vann (5-1) could all suffer from the lack of a “breather” at any point in the race.

Second-flight runners such as Northern Spur victor Uncle Brent (4-1) and Lexington runner-up Prime Cut (9-2) will have to time their moves perfectly to hold off the closers. Who will benefit from any tactical errors up front? Strong finishers like Alternation and Newsdad (8-1) could be the prime beneficiaries.

Newsdad has gotten progressively better with every race, but his career debut (and only start on dirt) was awful. Do we chalk that off to inexperience, or is he really a turf/poly type? Also of concern is his tendency to settle for minor awards, with just a maiden score to his credit from five starts. That leaves the beautifully-bred Alternation. He too has improved with racing, but unlike Newsdad, has three wins on dirt, including a second-level allowance win vs. older horses at Oaklawn Park. He got away last in the Arkansas Derby, but made up 3 ½ lengths in the stretch to finish fifth in a field of 13. Top New York rider Ramon Dominguez will be aboard for the first time in The Peter Pan, so a good trip is anticipated. Toss in a recent pair of bullet breezes at Arlington Park, and it looks like this guy’s ready to run a corker. I’ll bet on Alternation to win and place at odds of 4-1 or better. If he wins this, look for Alternation to be a major player in The Belmont Stakes four weeks from now.

Those are my horse racing betting tips for the weekend. Best of luck and happy gambling!

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